It is predicted that age-related government expenditure for pensions, health and care will consume nearly 30% of Europe’s annual economic output by 2060.
3. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011
Enormous proportions care combined will grow from approxi- Aging societies everywhere
This is one reason why increases in age- mately 10% of current GDP to 16% if Aging societies are either already a reality
related public spending will vary consider- today’s regulations are maintained 6. or soon will be in many countries. The pro-
ably in the EU and in some countries take The greater part of the increase will be portion of the population over age of 60 in
on enormous proportions, albeit from very spent on healthcare. the German and Italian populations, which
different baselines. In this respect the EU currently stands at around 26%, is set to
countries can be divided into three groups3. Asia will also be affected swell to one third of the population within
• Countries with expected increases Aging is not limited to industrial countries; 15 years and to around 40% by 2050. Coun-
in public spending of more than it also has an impact on the emerging Asian tries such as France, Sweden and the USA
seven percentage points of GDP by economic powers such as South Korea, Tai- are aging somewhat slower but at an
2060: Greece, Spain, Slovenia, the wan, Singapore and China, and this impact appreciable rate. In Asia the two countries
Netherlands and Ireland. is partly even greater, particularly in terms most affected are Japan and South Korea.
• Countries with expected increases of speed. Although China has a relatively Japan is already the oldest society in the
in public spending of four to seven young population at the moment, this will world, while South Korea is undergoing
percentage points of GDP: Germany 4, change dramatically in the coming years. rapid aging. In China the process has start-
the Czech Republic, Slovakia, For reasons that will be discussed later, ed somewhat later, but the country will
Hungary and the UK. the birth rate has fallen from 5.5 children nevertheless age within a generation. The
• Countries with expected increases per female in 1960 to just 1.8 today. At the social aging process is driven everywhere
in public spending of less than four same time life expectancy has risen by an by rising life expectancy in combination
percentage points of GDP: Austria, astonishing 28 years.7 Aging in China has with decreasing fertility. As a result, the
France, Denmark, Italy, Bulgaria, thus set in during a much earlier phase of number of elderly in society is growing,
Sweden and Poland. economic development than in Europe while the number of younger people is
for example. The extent to which this will shrinking. The reasons for this develop-
The increase in age-related public spending affect state spending is hard to predict, ment lie in the interplay between better
is not uniquely a European phenomenon; since both the pension and healthcare sys- healthcare, improved nutrition and higher
it is worldwide, although the challenges tems are in a stage of early development standards of living.
differ from country to country. or reform. At the moment China spends
2.7% of its GDP on pension payments.
The USA’s healthcare problem 3 European Commission. The 2009 Ageing Report:
The USA can expect a relatively favorable There are two pension systems in China: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27
demographic trend, and for the most part one designed for employees in cities and Member States (2008–2060), European Economy
2/2009, p. 27.
Social Security is designed to provide only the other for rural areas. However, less than
4 In the case of Germany, the projected increase
a basic income. Nevertheless, the USA will half of workers in cities and just 12% of
means that social security contributions would
be greatly affected. Healthcare is driving up workers in rural areas are covered.8 Thus, have to increase from just under 40 to just under
public spending and is particularly affected most Chinese are not integrated in the 50% to keep public finances sustainable. Deutsche
by an aging society because of its institu- pension system. Nor is the healthcare sys- Bundesbank 2009. Monthly Report July, p. 35.
5 George Magnus 2009. The Age of Aging. John
tional structure. Public spending has risen tem by any means available to all Chinese.
Wiley & Sons, p. 131
by 5% per annum since 1970, and if this Reforms of the rural pension system aim 6 Congress of the United States Congressional
trend continues will reach 18% of GDP by to include the entire rural workforce by Budget Office. The Long-Term Budget Outlook.
2050 5. This would be much higher than 2020. Age-dependent state expenditures August 2010 Revision
in other industrial countries with less in China will depend largely on which 7 United Nations. Population Division, World
Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population
favorable demographic trends. Other reforms are introduced and implemented.
Database
analyses have come to similar conclusions. However, it is already clear that these 8 Heikki Oksanen 2010. The Chinese Pension
The US Congressional Budget Office has reforms and their design are among System: First Results on Assessing the Reform
estimated that over the next 25 years US the most daunting social, economic and Options. European Economy Economic Papers 412,
public spending on pensions and health- fiscal challenges facing China today. Data relate to 2008.
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5. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011
Australia and Sweden are sitting pretty as Control, but how? work process. The focus here is on elderly
far as pension system sustainability is con- The aging of societies will place a huge workers and women, as reflected in recent
cerned. China and Greece, by contrast, are burden on state finances, particularly as a heated debates about the retirement age
under enormous pressure to make their consequence of increasing expenditures in German and France.
pension systems fit for the future. for pensions, health and care. For this rea-
son the main mechanism for controlling Second, there is the question as to whether
Pension systems are highly complex these expenditures is to set up sustainable aging societies can be as innovative and
arrangements. However, for all their and financially viable systems in these productive as younger societies. Definitive
differences countries with a low reform areas. Many major reforms have already findings are lacking, but there is at least
pressure have one thing in common: they been implemented, though not to the evidence that elderly workers can be just
can point to a comparatively favorable same extent in every country. as productive as their younger counter-
demographic development and relatively parts depending on the tasks at hand and
low national debt, as well as strong capital- An equally important factor is economic the composition of age-mixed teams. As
funded pillars and thus balanced pension growth. The fiscal effects of aging are far as innovation is concerned, there is a
income. This pension design reduces the much easier to shoulder in a growing lack of robust evidence. However, it is con-
burden on state finances. It also means economy than in a stagnating or shrinking ceivable that aging societies will require
that individuals’ pension income is derived one. However, aging societies also have new kinds of products and services so that
from various sources. Thus, the overall risk potential effects on economic growth. Two entirely new markets develop, and aging
is reduced, since the individual sources are main factors are at play. First, the number societies that prepare for them early will
exposed to different risks. This is similar of employees decreases. This means that gain competitive advantages.
to the diversification principle for capital potentially less can be produced and the
investments. economy grows at a slower pace. However,
economic policies can counter this devel-
opment by integrating more people in the
Sustainable pension systems: the example of Sweden
Sweden, alongside Australia, is the country with the most sustainable
pension system, a prime example of the diversification of pension
income among various pillars. The state pension system tries to
establish equivalence between contributions and pension payments
and is complemented by capital-funded reserve funds. In addition, part of social security contributions
is invested in investment funds that the insured party can choose him/herself. At the same time, the
vast majority of employees are covered by company pension funds. This design strikes a balance between
the various pillars while ensuring the financial feasibility and sustainability of the system as a whole.
The example of Sweden also shows that capital-funded pensions and a developed welfare state are not
mutually exclusive and, in fact, can complement each other.
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6. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011
The tools
As we have seen, sustainable social sys- in the right direction in time, the state can
tems and economic growth are the two maintain its determining role and atten-
main tools for controlling the effects of tion can shift from the challenges of aging
aging on state finances. If the course is set societies to the opportunities they offer.
Editor: Dr. Alexander Börsch, Allianz, Senior Economist, International Pensions
Publisher: Allianz SE, Königinstrasse 28, 80802 Munich, Germany | Claudia Mohr-Calliet, claudia.mohr-calliet@allianz.com I http://www.allianz.com
Why does Allianz care about demography? Why does it matter to journalists and What are the benefits of Allianz
As a global financial service provider, the public? Demographic Pulse?
Allianz believes demographic change to Demographic change is challenging today’s Allianz Demographic Pulse is based on
be of crucial importance. Identified as one societies in many ways: People are getting the latest research into various aspects of
of the major megatrends, demographic older, and this raises the issue e.g. of long- demographic change. Conducted and
change will hold the key to many upcoming term care and dementia. Furthermore in written by Allianz experts, it highlights
social challenges, whether with regard the future there will be a significant decline current and globally relevant demographic
to health, old-age provision, education, in the workforce in all of the world’s markets, data and provides an insight into their im-
consumption or capital markets. triggering for example a challenge in pen- pact on worldwide economies and societies.
sion funding. Only information, awareness To ensure up-to-date coverage of major devel-
and discussion on the topic will help to opments in this field, Allianz Demographic
change attitudes, behavior and situations, Pulse is published on a regular basis, thus
so hopefully solve urgent needs and come providing ongoing and detailed information
up with innovative solutions. about a major trend that is shaping the world
we live in.
More publications at: Do you have any comments,
Allianz Group Economic Research & Corporate Development suggestions or questions? We look
https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/index.html forward to your feedback!
International Pensions at Allianz Global Investors Please contact: Claudia Mohr-Calliet,
http://publications.allianzgi.com/en/PensionResearch/Pages/PensionResearch.aspx
++49 89 3800 18797
Allianz Knowledge Site
claudia.mohr-calliet@allianz.com
http://knowledge.allianz.com/
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