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Road to  Sustainable  Recovery: The Environment for Manufacturing and Automation in 2010 and Beyond Craig Resnick Research Director  ARC Advisory Group [email_address] Larry O’Brien Research Director  ARC Advisory Group [email_address]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are we now? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Global Recession: Not Over Yet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on Manufacturing: A look at Recent PMIs from Around the World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI Comes Roaring Back
European Manufacturing PMI Indicates Similar Trends ,[object Object]
German Manufacturing PMI Data from Market Economics Indicates Turnaround ,[object Object]
China Manufacturing PMI Indicates Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Markit Economics
India Manufacturing PMI Shows Expansion ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: CLSA
Brazilian Manufacturing Industry Back on an Expansion Path ,[object Object]
Russian PMI in Decline ,[object Object],[object Object]
Latest Manufacturing Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  Report On Business ,[object Object],[object Object]
Latest Manufacturing ISM  Report On Business Month PMI   Month PMI Jan 2010 58.4   Jul 2009 49.1 Dec 2009 54.9   Jun 2009 45.3 Nov 2009 53.7   May 2009 43.2 Oct 2009 55.2   Apr 2009 40.4 Sep 2009 52.4   Mar 2009 36.4 Aug 2009 52.8   Feb 2009 35.7 Average for 12 months – 48.1 High – 58.4 Low – 35.7
US Durable Goods Rise ,[object Object],[object Object]
USBLS Productivity and Costs (Output per Hour of all Persons) Rising Manufacturing sector productivity grew 13.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009, as output rose 8.4 percent and hours worked fell 4.4 percent (tables A and 3). The third quarter gain in manufacturing productivity was the largest in the series, which begins in the second quarter of 1987.
Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization in the US Increasing For the fourth quarter as a whole, manufacturing output increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent.
Canada’s Manufacturing Sales Increase in October… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
… But Canada’s Industrial Capacity Utilization Falls ,[object Object],[object Object]
Capital Spending has Yet to Make Full Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Capital Spending has Yet to Make Full Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object]
Another Key Indicator: the Price of Oil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
International Energy Agency (IEA) report shows Long-term Shortage & Supply Concerns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: IEA, Seekingalpha
Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy Consumption History and  Forecast
Energy Capital Project Costs are Still High, Declining for Upstream
Energy Capital Project Costs are Still High, Increasing for Downstream
IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates Capital Costs Index for Power Generation
Consolidation Suppliers  and  Users of Automation Have been Consolidating.
End User Industry Examples of Consolidation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bottom line: Newly created enterprises need help to develop strategic manufacturing plans!
Siemens Invensys Marcam Eurotherm Wonderware SimSci APV Triconex L&N SCADA N-Pignone SCADA PacSim ABB Honeywell POMS Measurex Allied Signal InterPlant Consulting P&F Safety Systems L&N Walsh Automation =Recent Rockwell ICS Triplex Pavillion Tesch DataSweep Eutech  Entrelec  APV (Divest) UGS CEDES HSB CMS Tecnologia Incuity Soft. DLI Eng. Tata Hon Goldstar Hon Emerson DMI Bristol Bab. Damcos IndX InterCorr Enraf PAS APC MDC Autom. Grp. Gepa Applied Aut. Robicon Propack SAT Quantum Engineering Xian Hensheng Ber-Mac Kuhlman Elect Vectek Electronics Morgan Shinwha BJC Innotec Rutter Hinz Maxon Callidus Roxar Cellier Engineering August Systems Combustion  Engineering Alfa Laval Automation Systems Mod. Dynapro ETG Entek IRD   Sequencia   Anorad EJA ORSI Milltronics Turbo-Werk Moore Compex Vickers Danfoss Flow US Filter Westinghouse Intellution (Divested) Kenonics CSI PC&E Daniel Saab Marine Electronics Orion CEM Solartron Mob.
How has ARC Revised its Growth Forecasts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investments Must Continue to be Made in Key Industry Segments, In Spite of Economy! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sustainability is the Issue!  Sustainability of Your Business! ,[object Object],[object Object]
Infrastructure Needs Modernization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IT Versus Automation – Installed Base
Automation is a Small Percent of Project Spend, but has a Huge Impact
Average Loss Per Major Incident, a Key Driver of Increased Automation At an Average Cost of Close to $100M in Damages per Incident, Operational Error is The Single Biggest Reason for Unscheduled Shut down
The Maintenance Service Scenario Today 35% 28% 20% 6% 6% 4% Source: Shell Global Solutions 63% of maintenance labor results in no action!!
Stimulus Spending, Where Does It Go?
Obama’s Infrastructure Plant and What it Means to the Automation Business ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Obama Stimulus Plan Targets Energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What the Stimulus Plan Means for Automation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industry and Its Role in Power Consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ARC Economic Indicators Survey ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ARC Economic Indicators Survey: Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
From your perspective, how do you view the change in the economic climate from: At the end of the year, the Majority of respondents are optimistic about economy – Pessimism is way down
At your site, approximately what is your current manufacturing capacity utilization? On average, the majority of users are maintaining capacity utilization of more than 70 percent
At your site, how is your Capacity Utilization changing? Majority of respondents expect little change in capacity utilization
How are your orders and bookings changing? Respondents increases in bookings offset by decreases in bookings resulting in little overall change for last couple of months of 2009
How is your Backlog changing? Backlog increases are offset by backlog decreases
How to you expect your Spending will change next month? Manufacturers Still Tentative about Plant Investment
How do you expect your CAPEX spending will change next month? Little change in CapEx at the end of 2009
The number of individual plant or manufacturing operations in my company are: Respondents come from a wide manufacturing base
Which of the following vertical industries best describes your firm's manufacturing business? A wide variety of industries are represented in the survey
Respondent’s Primary Business Good cross section of organizations involved in manufacturing
Respondent’s Geographic Location Majority of respondents from EMEA region
Respondent’s Job Function Management and Sales functions well represented in results
Thank You For more information, contact the author at cresnick@arcweb.com  or visit our web pages at www.arcweb.com
The Sustainability Challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sustainability Will Raise the Bar Even Higher To create zero waste 25% reduction in  solid waste in 3 years ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],To sell products that sustain resources & the environment 20% supply base aligned in 3 years Wal-Mart Corporate Environmental Sustainability Goals
“ Green” Buildings Energy Recovery Package Innovation PepsiCo’s responsibility is to continually improve all aspects of the world in which we operate – environment, social, economic – creating a better tomorrow than today. Provide Trustworthy PRODUCTS Conserve and Respect our ENVIRONMENT Sustainability Will Raise the Bar Even Higher   PepsiCo Respect and Fairly Treat our PEOPLE
Climate Change Creating Havoc Mean Temperature Change World CO2 Emissions CO2 Concentration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Addition of Power Generation Capacity is Getting Harder, Energy Conservation and Management a Must ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Index Value ,[object Object]
Manufacturers and Processors Have The Most To Gain By Saving Energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Industry 33.4% Transportation 27.2% Commercial 17.9% Residential  21.5% Energy Use
Major Energy-Intensive Industries Sustainability impacts ALL! Energy Consumption  (Trillion Btu) Petroleum Chemicals Paper Primary Metals Food Processing Nonmetallic Minerals Tobacco/Beverages Furniture Leather Machinery and Computers Wood Transportation Fabricated Metals Textiles/Apparel Plastics/ Rubber Electrical Printing Miscellaneous 1 10 100 1000 10 100 1000 10000 Energy Intensity  (Thousand Btu/$ GDP) Energy-Intensive Industries Industrial Energy Intensity vs. Energy Consumption Mining ,[object Object]
Energy Challenges Create Drivers For Sustainability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Application Example*   UPS Worldport - Louisville,  KY The world’s largest fully automated package sorting facility Sort Capacity Per Hour: 421,000 packages Number of Conveyor Drives: 25,314 Miles of Transport Conveyors:  128 miles Power consumption: 72 MVA  (City of Louisville: 114MVA)   Facility Size: 5.6 million square feet YTD Overall Investment  > $2 billion IT Equipment 4,500 Scanners  6,000 PCs  1,500 Printers  >500 Data Communication Devices 380 Servers ,[object Object]
KPI Efficiency Goals Accomplished through Advanced Automation Solutions ! pps: packages per sort  (1 sort: aprox. 2.4hrs)  pph: packages per hour 1999  Grade Lane (manual) 2007 Worldport (automated) % Volume 495,000 pps  812,000 pps 64 Design Capacity 215,000 pph 304,000 pph 41 Staffing (Sorting) 1984 2362 19 Productivity (per person) 48 pph 93 pph 94 Injuries (LTI) 10.9/yr  2.0/yr  -82 Missorts 1/2226 1/4554 -51
The Triple Bottom Line Impact on Sustainability ?
Increased Efficiency Impacts Sustainability Positively ,[object Object],ECONOMIC   ENVIRONMENT SOCIAL   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Can We Collectively Do To Navigate The Road to Recovery?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Industry Leaders Need to  Plan   Now to seize the road to recovery

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Economic climate for manufacturing 01 10

  • 1. Road to Sustainable Recovery: The Environment for Manufacturing and Automation in 2010 and Beyond Craig Resnick Research Director ARC Advisory Group [email_address] Larry O’Brien Research Director ARC Advisory Group [email_address]
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI Comes Roaring Back
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Month PMI   Month PMI Jan 2010 58.4   Jul 2009 49.1 Dec 2009 54.9   Jun 2009 45.3 Nov 2009 53.7   May 2009 43.2 Oct 2009 55.2   Apr 2009 40.4 Sep 2009 52.4   Mar 2009 36.4 Aug 2009 52.8   Feb 2009 35.7 Average for 12 months – 48.1 High – 58.4 Low – 35.7
  • 15.
  • 16. USBLS Productivity and Costs (Output per Hour of all Persons) Rising Manufacturing sector productivity grew 13.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009, as output rose 8.4 percent and hours worked fell 4.4 percent (tables A and 3). The third quarter gain in manufacturing productivity was the largest in the series, which begins in the second quarter of 1987.
  • 17. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization in the US Increasing For the fourth quarter as a whole, manufacturing output increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy Consumption History and Forecast
  • 25. Energy Capital Project Costs are Still High, Declining for Upstream
  • 26. Energy Capital Project Costs are Still High, Increasing for Downstream
  • 27. IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates Capital Costs Index for Power Generation
  • 28. Consolidation Suppliers and Users of Automation Have been Consolidating.
  • 29.
  • 30. Siemens Invensys Marcam Eurotherm Wonderware SimSci APV Triconex L&N SCADA N-Pignone SCADA PacSim ABB Honeywell POMS Measurex Allied Signal InterPlant Consulting P&F Safety Systems L&N Walsh Automation =Recent Rockwell ICS Triplex Pavillion Tesch DataSweep Eutech Entrelec APV (Divest) UGS CEDES HSB CMS Tecnologia Incuity Soft. DLI Eng. Tata Hon Goldstar Hon Emerson DMI Bristol Bab. Damcos IndX InterCorr Enraf PAS APC MDC Autom. Grp. Gepa Applied Aut. Robicon Propack SAT Quantum Engineering Xian Hensheng Ber-Mac Kuhlman Elect Vectek Electronics Morgan Shinwha BJC Innotec Rutter Hinz Maxon Callidus Roxar Cellier Engineering August Systems Combustion Engineering Alfa Laval Automation Systems Mod. Dynapro ETG Entek IRD Sequencia Anorad EJA ORSI Milltronics Turbo-Werk Moore Compex Vickers Danfoss Flow US Filter Westinghouse Intellution (Divested) Kenonics CSI PC&E Daniel Saab Marine Electronics Orion CEM Solartron Mob.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. IT Versus Automation – Installed Base
  • 35. Automation is a Small Percent of Project Spend, but has a Huge Impact
  • 36. Average Loss Per Major Incident, a Key Driver of Increased Automation At an Average Cost of Close to $100M in Damages per Incident, Operational Error is The Single Biggest Reason for Unscheduled Shut down
  • 37. The Maintenance Service Scenario Today 35% 28% 20% 6% 6% 4% Source: Shell Global Solutions 63% of maintenance labor results in no action!!
  • 39.
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  • 45. From your perspective, how do you view the change in the economic climate from: At the end of the year, the Majority of respondents are optimistic about economy – Pessimism is way down
  • 46. At your site, approximately what is your current manufacturing capacity utilization? On average, the majority of users are maintaining capacity utilization of more than 70 percent
  • 47. At your site, how is your Capacity Utilization changing? Majority of respondents expect little change in capacity utilization
  • 48. How are your orders and bookings changing? Respondents increases in bookings offset by decreases in bookings resulting in little overall change for last couple of months of 2009
  • 49. How is your Backlog changing? Backlog increases are offset by backlog decreases
  • 50. How to you expect your Spending will change next month? Manufacturers Still Tentative about Plant Investment
  • 51. How do you expect your CAPEX spending will change next month? Little change in CapEx at the end of 2009
  • 52. The number of individual plant or manufacturing operations in my company are: Respondents come from a wide manufacturing base
  • 53. Which of the following vertical industries best describes your firm's manufacturing business? A wide variety of industries are represented in the survey
  • 54. Respondent’s Primary Business Good cross section of organizations involved in manufacturing
  • 55. Respondent’s Geographic Location Majority of respondents from EMEA region
  • 56. Respondent’s Job Function Management and Sales functions well represented in results
  • 57. Thank You For more information, contact the author at cresnick@arcweb.com or visit our web pages at www.arcweb.com
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. “ Green” Buildings Energy Recovery Package Innovation PepsiCo’s responsibility is to continually improve all aspects of the world in which we operate – environment, social, economic – creating a better tomorrow than today. Provide Trustworthy PRODUCTS Conserve and Respect our ENVIRONMENT Sustainability Will Raise the Bar Even Higher PepsiCo Respect and Fairly Treat our PEOPLE
  • 61.
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  • 67. KPI Efficiency Goals Accomplished through Advanced Automation Solutions ! pps: packages per sort (1 sort: aprox. 2.4hrs) pph: packages per hour 1999 Grade Lane (manual) 2007 Worldport (automated) % Volume 495,000 pps 812,000 pps 64 Design Capacity 215,000 pph 304,000 pph 41 Staffing (Sorting) 1984 2362 19 Productivity (per person) 48 pph 93 pph 94 Injuries (LTI) 10.9/yr 2.0/yr -82 Missorts 1/2226 1/4554 -51
  • 68. The Triple Bottom Line Impact on Sustainability ?
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  • 70.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. In the past year alone, automation market consolidation reached new levels with the acquisition of GE by Honeywell. ABB acquired Cellier Engineering and made a majority investment in supply chain supplier Skyva. Invensys purchased Baan and Walsh Automation. Emerson Electric purchased Saab Marine Electronics, Kenonics, and MDC software. Siemens recently announced its acquisition of ORSI.
  2. Chapter 1 - Executive Summary 7/21/2008 Copyright - ARC Advisory Group
  3. New position created: Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Manufacturing and Services Cross-agency initiative under development Dept. of Commerce draft report on manufacturing highlights rising energy costs as factor in eroding U.S. competitiveness