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Global Strategy


Equity Research                Asia                                                                 Sector Strategy

June 6, 2012
                               O&G Weekly: An opportune time?
2012 GDP ESTIMATES:                 Oil prices continue to weaken. Crude oil had another bad week, with WTI,
China: 7.7%-8.2%                     Brent and Dubai all losing between 4%-7% of their value over the last seven
                                     days. In total, all three benchmarks have fallen by more than 20% from their
Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0%
                                     peak in March. Short-term newsflow remain weak, with macroeconomic data
India: 6.8%-7.3%
                                     from the US and China depressing sentiment on crude oil. Physical
Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5%
                                     fundamentals also look weak for 2012, with supply growth (mainly from
Japan: 1.5%-2.0%
                                     OPEC) outstripping demand growth by more than 1 mbpd, based on EIA
Korea: 2.8%-3.3%
                                     projections (although much of this supply would go towards replenishing
Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9%
                                     inventories drawn down substantially in 2011). The USD index has also
Singapore: 2.0%-2.5%                 strengthened by more than 3% YTD, putting further pressure on crude oil
Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8%                    prices.
Thailand: 3.5%-4.0%
U.S.: 1.8%                          Putin visit to herald a (long-overdue) gas agreement? Russian President
Eurozone: 0.4%                       Vladimir Putin begins a three-day visit to China today, and hopes are
                                     running high that China and the world’s leading natural gas producer will
                                     finally sign a gas sales agreement first proposed in a MoU in 2009. Recent
2012 INDEX TARGETS:                  weakness in crude prices may give PetroChina more room to negotiate with
S&P 500: 1,400                       Gazprom, as Russia is likely to index its gas prices to crude oil. Still, with
S&P Euro 350: 1,050                  gas pricing reform still in its infancy in China (trials have only begun in
S&P Asia 50: 3,500                   Guangdong and Guangxi from early this year), we believe this would be a
                                     hurdle too far, in the short-term. Over the long-run, we believe China will
                                     push gas prices towards market pricing to encourage domestic investments
                                     and natural gas imports, which will be crucial to meet its energy needs.

                                    Sinopec, CNOOC Ltd sniffing around TNK-BP stake? BP on Jun. 1
                                     announced it had received approaches for its stake in troubled Russian JV

Energy                               TNK-BP, and has said that it intends to pursue the sale. Although no names
                                     were mentioned, market speculation is rife that both Sinopec and CNOOC

Oil & Gas                            Ltd are looking at the stake, especially with President Putin visiting China.
                                     We suspect that if this is the case, the acquisition may be undertaken by
                                     parent companies of either Sinopec or CNOOC Ltd, and later on injected in
Overweight                           stages into the listed entity, given the potential value of USD30 bln for the
                                     stake would be one of the biggest ever undertaken by the Chinese energy
                                     players.

                                    Another spill at PL19-3? Troubled offshore oil field PL19-3 was again in the
                                     limelight this week, with ConocoPhillips, the operator of the field,
Ahmad Abdul-Halim, CFA
                                     announcing a small 0.6 ton oil leak during an oil transfer operation on
Equity Analyst
                                     Sunday. The oil sheen was immediately cleaned up by 3 pm Monday, but we
                                     believe this will put more pressure on both ConocoPhillips and CNOOC Ltd
                                     to ramp up safety precautions ahead of a possible re-start of commercial
                                     production at China’s biggest offshore oil field to date, which we expect to
                                     happen by end 2012.

                                    Tune out the noise; buy CNOOC Ltd on cheap valuations. We encourage
                                     investors to tune out the oil price noise and the drama in Europe, and focus
                                     on company fundamentals, which remain positive for our top pick CNOOC
                                     Ltd (trading at 6.8x 2012 EPS on CIQ data, vs. five-year average PE of 12.5x).


Standard & Poor’s              This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
                               Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results
Equity Research Services
                               from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required
30 Cecil Street
                               disclosures and analyst certification appears on the last 3 pages of this report. Additional information is
Prudential Tower, 17th Floor
                               available on request.
Singapore, 049712
June 6, 2012                               Global Strategy




                                                                                                                                                            2


 Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Price Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at June 05, 2012

                                                                                         Price Performance                 PER (x)          PAT Growth
                                                                            Market
                                                   Trading                Cap (USD
 Company Name                         CIQ Ticker   Ccy        Share Price      mln)     1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
 Integrateds
 Exxon Mobil Corporation              NYSE:XOM         USD         77.60   362,870 -8.2% -10.8% -3.5%                     9.5x       8.8x -6.5%      4.5%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                  SEHK:857         HKD          9.65   263,468 -14.9% -15.6% -4.3%                    9.2x       8.6x 17.6%      6.4%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                LSE:RDSA         GBP         19.84   197,321 -7.4% -12.8% -12.1%                    6.6x       6.3x -7.8%      6.7%
 Chevron Corporation                  NYSE:CVX         USD         96.49   190,343 -7.0% -11.7% -6.2%                     7.2x       7.1x -1.9%      0.9%
 BP plc                               LSE:BP.          GBP          4.02   117,542 -4.8% -20.3% -13.8%                    5.9x       5.4x -18.7%     4.7%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.     SEHK:386         HKD          6.80    86,195 -16.8% -22.3% -17.7%                   6.4x       5.9x   0.7%    15.8%
 ConocoPhillips                       NYSE:COP         USD         51.87    65,593 -2.4% -33.1% -28.8%                    7.2x       6.6x -28.2%     5.7%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                  SET:PTT          THB        303.00    27,392 -14.2% -15.4% -5.3%                    7.2x       6.5x 11.6%     13.9%
 Average                                                                           -9.46% -17.76% -11.45%                 7.4x       6.9x -4.1%      7.3%

 E&Ps
 CNOOC Ltd.                           SEHK:883         HKD         13.28     76,414     -19.7%     -23.1%     -13.8%      6.8x        6.8x -0.3%     0.3%
 Statoil ASA                          OB:STL           NOK        134.70     70,192      -9.6%     -15.5%      -9.7%      7.5x        7.1x -27.4%    1.9%
 Suncor Energy Inc.                   TSX:SU           CAD         28.30     42,434      -6.3%     -18.7%      -9.2%      8.2x        7.2x 24.2%    15.7%
 Apache Corp.                         NYSE:APA         USD         81.15     31,716      -8.9%     -24.1%     -16.3%      6.7x        6.1x   4.7%   12.2%
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation       NYSE:APC         USD         58.86     29,405     -14.7%     -29.2%     -28.0%     14.8x       11.2x    NM    33.3%
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.              ASX:WPL          AUD         32.03     25,702      -9.5%     -11.1%      -6.3%     12.9x       11.0x 36.1%    20.0%
 PTT E&P Public Company Limited       SET:PTTEP        THB        155.00     16,287     -11.9%     -15.3%      -6.6%      9.2x        7.5x 23.4%    23.3%
 Hess Corporation                     NYSE:HES         USD         43.01     14,517     -15.6%     -33.5%     -29.2%      6.8x        5.7x 29.6%    22.3%
 Average                                                                              -12.02%    -21.33%    -14.88%       9.1x        7.3x 12.9%    16.1%

                                                        EV/EBITDA               PBV           ROE        Gross Margin   Div Yield
 Company Name                                       FY2012      FY2013      FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
 Integrateds
 Exxon Mobil Corporation              NYSE:XOM         4.2x         4.0x       2.2x       2.0x    22.6%      21.6%     42.70%    44.30%    2.70%    2.91%
 PetroChina Co. Ltd.                  SEHK:857         5.6x         5.2x       1.3x       1.2x    14.6%      14.6%     42.30%    47.05%    4.81%    5.24%
 Royal Dutch Shell plc                LSE:RDSA         3.4x         3.2x       1.0x       0.9x    16.1%      15.3%         N/A       N/A   5.57%    5.76%
 Chevron Corporation                  NYSE:CVX         3.0x         3.0x       1.4x       1.2x    20.4%      18.5%     44.30%    45.90%    3.63%    3.77%
 BP plc                               LSE:BP.          3.3x         3.3x       0.9x       0.8x    17.3%      16.8%     18.80%    19.70%    5.16%    5.65%
 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.     SEHK:386         4.4x         3.9x       0.9x       0.8x    15.2%      14.8%     16.89%    19.47%    4.86%    5.31%
 ConocoPhillips                       NYSE:COP         3.8x         3.6x       1.1x       1.0x    13.2%      14.4%     47.70%    49.70%    5.18%    5.39%
 PTT Public Co. Ltd.                  SET:PTT          5.2x         4.7x       1.3x       1.2x    19.8%      19.3%      9.24%    10.08%    4.56%    5.17%
 Average                                               4.1x         3.9x       1.3x       1.1x    17.4%      16.9%     31.70%    33.74%    4.56%    4.90%

 E&Ps
 CNOOC Ltd.                           SEHK:883         3.3x         3.3x       1.6x       1.4x    24.7%      21.0%     62.67%    61.45%    4.50%     3.3x
 Statoil ASA                          OB:STL           1.8x         1.8x       1.4x       1.2x    19.4%      18.0%     47.38%    46.07%    5.06%     1.8x
 Suncor Energy Inc.                   TSX:SU           4.2x         3.7x       1.0x       0.9x    13.3%      13.8%     60.80%    62.60%    1.73%     4.2x
 Apache Corp.                         NYSE:APA         3.0x         2.8x       1.0x       0.8x    15.7%      15.2%     79.30%        N/A   0.81%     3.0x
 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation       NYSE:APC         4.5x         4.0x       1.3x       1.2x    10.6%      11.6%     71.30%        N/A   0.62%     4.5x
 Woodside Petroleum Ltd.              ASX:WPL          7.4x         6.4x       1.7x       1.6x    14.9%      15.4%     76.70%    76.50%    4.02%     7.4x
 PTT E&P Public Company Limited       SET:PTTEP        4.3x         3.4x       2.1x       1.8x    24.9%      25.4%     53.26%    54.44%    4.22%     4.3x
 Hess Corporation                     NYSE:HES         2.7x         2.4x       0.7x       0.6x    11.2%      11.6%     32.20%    33.90%    0.97%     2.7x
 Average                                               3.9x         3.5x       1.3x       1.2x    16.8%      16.5%     60.45%    55.83%    2.74%     3.9x
 Source: S&P Capital IQ




                                           Standard & Poor’s                                                                     Equity Research
June 6, 2012                                                   Global Strategy




                                                                                            S&P Capital IQ Equity Research – S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U.S. includes
Glossary                                                                                    Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity
                                                                                            Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                 3

                                                                                            trading as Standard & Poor’s; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Asia

S&P STARS     - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a          includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. Limited’s offices in Singapore,

universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs               Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong,

(American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future                 Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services

performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS®                      (Australia) Pty Ltd.

methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under
                                                                                            Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports
proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank
                                                                                            CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate
equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return
                                                                                            CAPEX- Capital Expenditures
potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional
                                                                                            CY- Calendar Year
index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a
                                                                                            DCF- Discounted Cash Flow
12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking
                                                                                            EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining
                                                                                            EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal
                                                                                            EPS- Earnings Per Share
proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs.
                                                                                            EV- Enterprise Value

S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings)-                      FCF- Free Cash Flow

Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in                   FFO- Funds From Operations

establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are              FY- Fiscal Year

designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted,     P/E- Price/Earnings

however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and             PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio

modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for           PV- Present Value

each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores        R&D- Research & Development

of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of         ROE- Return on Equity

this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings:                         ROI- Return on Investment
                                                                                            ROIC- Return on Invested Capital
A+ Highest                B+ Average                C Lowest                                ROA- Return on Assets
A High                    B Below Average           D In Reorganization                     SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
A- Above Average          B- Lower                  NR Not Ranked                           WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital

S&P Issuer Credit Rating     - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current
                                                                                            Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its
                                                                                            Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness
to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific
financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of
the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the    Disclosures/Disclaimers
legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account
the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit
enhancement on the obligation.
                                                                                            Required Disclosures
S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates            In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which
reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally         are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative
exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary.          evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In
Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity        particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology,
analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently                 whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the
compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among            STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods,
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment,           quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity
restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process        analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on
research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt;           history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity
the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that        as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations.
have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items,
such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to
                                                                                            S&P Global STARS Distribution
which some types of data is disclosed by companies.                                         In North America
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North
S&P Core Earnings     – S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for           America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with
adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings                  hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations.
generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are
                                                                                            In Europe
employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Europe
ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets,             recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold
purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized                     recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations.
gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains,
impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-        In Asia
                                                                                            As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia
year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.                        recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold
                                                                                            recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations.
S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the
market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a                      Globally
combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P     As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research globally
                                                                                            recommended 34.0% of issuers with buy recommendations, 56.3% with hold
Fair Value.
                                                                                            recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations.


                                                               Standard & Poor’s                                                                        Equity Research
June 6, 2012                                                    Global Strategy




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                                                                 Standard & Poor’s                                                                           Equity Research
June 6, 2012                                                     Global Strategy




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                                                                 Standard & Poor’s              Equity Research
June 6, 2012   Global Strategy




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               Standard & Poor’s           Equity Research

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Energy 120606

  • 1. Global Strategy Equity Research Asia Sector Strategy June 6, 2012 O&G Weekly: An opportune time? 2012 GDP ESTIMATES:  Oil prices continue to weaken. Crude oil had another bad week, with WTI, China: 7.7%-8.2% Brent and Dubai all losing between 4%-7% of their value over the last seven days. In total, all three benchmarks have fallen by more than 20% from their Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0% peak in March. Short-term newsflow remain weak, with macroeconomic data India: 6.8%-7.3% from the US and China depressing sentiment on crude oil. Physical Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5% fundamentals also look weak for 2012, with supply growth (mainly from Japan: 1.5%-2.0% OPEC) outstripping demand growth by more than 1 mbpd, based on EIA Korea: 2.8%-3.3% projections (although much of this supply would go towards replenishing Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9% inventories drawn down substantially in 2011). The USD index has also Singapore: 2.0%-2.5% strengthened by more than 3% YTD, putting further pressure on crude oil Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8% prices. Thailand: 3.5%-4.0% U.S.: 1.8%  Putin visit to herald a (long-overdue) gas agreement? Russian President Eurozone: 0.4% Vladimir Putin begins a three-day visit to China today, and hopes are running high that China and the world’s leading natural gas producer will finally sign a gas sales agreement first proposed in a MoU in 2009. Recent 2012 INDEX TARGETS: weakness in crude prices may give PetroChina more room to negotiate with S&P 500: 1,400 Gazprom, as Russia is likely to index its gas prices to crude oil. Still, with S&P Euro 350: 1,050 gas pricing reform still in its infancy in China (trials have only begun in S&P Asia 50: 3,500 Guangdong and Guangxi from early this year), we believe this would be a hurdle too far, in the short-term. Over the long-run, we believe China will push gas prices towards market pricing to encourage domestic investments and natural gas imports, which will be crucial to meet its energy needs.  Sinopec, CNOOC Ltd sniffing around TNK-BP stake? BP on Jun. 1 announced it had received approaches for its stake in troubled Russian JV Energy TNK-BP, and has said that it intends to pursue the sale. Although no names were mentioned, market speculation is rife that both Sinopec and CNOOC Oil & Gas Ltd are looking at the stake, especially with President Putin visiting China. We suspect that if this is the case, the acquisition may be undertaken by parent companies of either Sinopec or CNOOC Ltd, and later on injected in Overweight stages into the listed entity, given the potential value of USD30 bln for the stake would be one of the biggest ever undertaken by the Chinese energy players.  Another spill at PL19-3? Troubled offshore oil field PL19-3 was again in the limelight this week, with ConocoPhillips, the operator of the field, Ahmad Abdul-Halim, CFA announcing a small 0.6 ton oil leak during an oil transfer operation on Equity Analyst Sunday. The oil sheen was immediately cleaned up by 3 pm Monday, but we believe this will put more pressure on both ConocoPhillips and CNOOC Ltd to ramp up safety precautions ahead of a possible re-start of commercial production at China’s biggest offshore oil field to date, which we expect to happen by end 2012.  Tune out the noise; buy CNOOC Ltd on cheap valuations. We encourage investors to tune out the oil price noise and the drama in Europe, and focus on company fundamentals, which remain positive for our top pick CNOOC Ltd (trading at 6.8x 2012 EPS on CIQ data, vs. five-year average PE of 12.5x). Standard & Poor’s This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results Equity Research Services from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012. All required 30 Cecil Street disclosures and analyst certification appears on the last 3 pages of this report. Additional information is Prudential Tower, 17th Floor available on request. Singapore, 049712
  • 2. June 6, 2012 Global Strategy 2 Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Price Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at June 05, 2012 Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth Market Trading Cap (USD Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share Price mln) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 Integrateds Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 77.60 362,870 -8.2% -10.8% -3.5% 9.5x 8.8x -6.5% 4.5% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 9.65 263,468 -14.9% -15.6% -4.3% 9.2x 8.6x 17.6% 6.4% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 19.84 197,321 -7.4% -12.8% -12.1% 6.6x 6.3x -7.8% 6.7% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 96.49 190,343 -7.0% -11.7% -6.2% 7.2x 7.1x -1.9% 0.9% BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 4.02 117,542 -4.8% -20.3% -13.8% 5.9x 5.4x -18.7% 4.7% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 HKD 6.80 86,195 -16.8% -22.3% -17.7% 6.4x 5.9x 0.7% 15.8% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 51.87 65,593 -2.4% -33.1% -28.8% 7.2x 6.6x -28.2% 5.7% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 303.00 27,392 -14.2% -15.4% -5.3% 7.2x 6.5x 11.6% 13.9% Average -9.46% -17.76% -11.45% 7.4x 6.9x -4.1% 7.3% E&Ps CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 13.28 76,414 -19.7% -23.1% -13.8% 6.8x 6.8x -0.3% 0.3% Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 134.70 70,192 -9.6% -15.5% -9.7% 7.5x 7.1x -27.4% 1.9% Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 28.30 42,434 -6.3% -18.7% -9.2% 8.2x 7.2x 24.2% 15.7% Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 81.15 31,716 -8.9% -24.1% -16.3% 6.7x 6.1x 4.7% 12.2% Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 58.86 29,405 -14.7% -29.2% -28.0% 14.8x 11.2x NM 33.3% Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 32.03 25,702 -9.5% -11.1% -6.3% 12.9x 11.0x 36.1% 20.0% PTT E&P Public Company Limited SET:PTTEP THB 155.00 16,287 -11.9% -15.3% -6.6% 9.2x 7.5x 23.4% 23.3% Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 43.01 14,517 -15.6% -33.5% -29.2% 6.8x 5.7x 29.6% 22.3% Average -12.02% -21.33% -14.88% 9.1x 7.3x 12.9% 16.1% EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield Company Name FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 Integrateds Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 4.2x 4.0x 2.2x 2.0x 22.6% 21.6% 42.70% 44.30% 2.70% 2.91% PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 5.6x 5.2x 1.3x 1.2x 14.6% 14.6% 42.30% 47.05% 4.81% 5.24% Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 3.4x 3.2x 1.0x 0.9x 16.1% 15.3% N/A N/A 5.57% 5.76% Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.0x 3.0x 1.4x 1.2x 20.4% 18.5% 44.30% 45.90% 3.63% 3.77% BP plc LSE:BP. 3.3x 3.3x 0.9x 0.8x 17.3% 16.8% 18.80% 19.70% 5.16% 5.65% China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 4.4x 3.9x 0.9x 0.8x 15.2% 14.8% 16.89% 19.47% 4.86% 5.31% ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 3.8x 3.6x 1.1x 1.0x 13.2% 14.4% 47.70% 49.70% 5.18% 5.39% PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 5.2x 4.7x 1.3x 1.2x 19.8% 19.3% 9.24% 10.08% 4.56% 5.17% Average 4.1x 3.9x 1.3x 1.1x 17.4% 16.9% 31.70% 33.74% 4.56% 4.90% E&Ps CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 3.3x 3.3x 1.6x 1.4x 24.7% 21.0% 62.67% 61.45% 4.50% 3.3x Statoil ASA OB:STL 1.8x 1.8x 1.4x 1.2x 19.4% 18.0% 47.38% 46.07% 5.06% 1.8x Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 4.2x 3.7x 1.0x 0.9x 13.3% 13.8% 60.80% 62.60% 1.73% 4.2x Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.0x 2.8x 1.0x 0.8x 15.7% 15.2% 79.30% N/A 0.81% 3.0x Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 4.5x 4.0x 1.3x 1.2x 10.6% 11.6% 71.30% N/A 0.62% 4.5x Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 7.4x 6.4x 1.7x 1.6x 14.9% 15.4% 76.70% 76.50% 4.02% 7.4x PTT E&P Public Company Limited SET:PTTEP 4.3x 3.4x 2.1x 1.8x 24.9% 25.4% 53.26% 54.44% 4.22% 4.3x Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 2.7x 2.4x 0.7x 0.6x 11.2% 11.6% 32.20% 33.90% 0.97% 2.7x Average 3.9x 3.5x 1.3x 1.2x 16.8% 16.5% 60.45% 55.83% 2.74% 3.9x Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
  • 3. June 6, 2012 Global Strategy S&P Capital IQ Equity Research – S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U.S. includes Glossary Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited 3 trading as Standard & Poor’s; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services Asia S&P STARS - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. Limited’s offices in Singapore, universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong, (American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS® (Australia) Pty Ltd. methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return CAPEX- Capital Expenditures potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional CY- Calendar Year index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a DCF- Discounted Cash Flow 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal EPS- Earnings Per Share proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs. EV- Enterprise Value S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings)- FCF- Free Cash Flow Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in FFO- Funds From Operations establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are FY- Fiscal Year designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, P/E- Price/Earnings however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for PV- Present Value each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores R&D- Research & Development of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of ROE- Return on Equity this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: ROI- Return on Investment ROIC- Return on Invested Capital A+ Highest B+ Average C Lowest ROA- Return on Assets A High B Below Average D In Reorganization SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses A- Above Average B- Lower NR Not Ranked WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital S&P Issuer Credit Rating - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin). financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the Disclosures/Disclaimers legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. Required Disclosures S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology, analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods, the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment, quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations. have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to S&P Global STARS Distribution which some types of data is disclosed by companies. In North America As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North S&P Core Earnings – S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations. generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are In Europe employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Europe ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations. gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains, impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior- In Asia As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements. recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations. S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a Globally combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research globally recommended 34.0% of issuers with buy recommendations, 56.3% with hold Fair Value. recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations. Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
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