In the first release of Afrobarometer findings in Zambia, a majority (74%) say they prefer #democracy to any other kind of government. Find out more in this presentation.
2. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
What is Afrobarometer?
• An African-led, non-partisan survey research project that
measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the
economy, civil society, and other topics.
• Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to 35 African countries in
Round 5 (2011-2013).
• Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing
high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy
advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media,
donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
• National Partners in each country conduct the survey. In Zambia,
Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted by RuralNet
Associates Ltd.
4. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
All respondents are randomly selected.
Sample is distributed across provinces and urban/rural areas in
proportion to their share in the national population.
Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
• Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s
choice.
• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and
over time.
• Sample size in Zambia of 1,200 adult citizens yields a margin of
error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.
• Fieldwork for Round 6 in Zambia was conducted between 1 and
31 October 2014.
5. Enumerator map
Note: the numbers in the map refer to the number of
enumeration areas (EAs) selected in each district.
11. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Key findings
■ Zambia is a highly ethnically diverse country, with nine
out of 10 (88%) chance that if one picked two
Zambians at random, they would belong to two
different tribes.
■ About one in 10 (12%) Zambians have intense feelings
of belonging to their tribal grouping at the expense of
national identity.
■ About half of Zambians (50%) have strong feelings of
belonging to their ethnic group (tribe) while at the
same time feeling a part of Zambia.
12. Tribe (ethnic group)
Survey question text: What is your ethnic community, cultural group or tribe?
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Bemba
Tonga
Lozi
Chewa
Namwanga
Kaonde
Nsenga
Ngoni
Tumbuka
Lala
Lunda
Nyanja
Luvale
Bisa
Mambwe
Ila
Kunda
Lamba
Ushi
Soli
Lenje
Tokaleya
Nkoya
Chokwe
Senga
Lungu
Ndebele
Mbunda
Chikunda
Nyika
Luchazi
Tabwa
Chiyaba
Sala
Ngumbo
Shila
Lambia
Shona
% Share
Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu
P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia
Telephone: +260 211 293 529
Fax: +260 211 295 178
Cell: +260 966 862 678
Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
13. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings
Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a
________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?
4%
8%
50%
5%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
I feel only (ethnic group) I feel more (ethnic
group) than (national
identity)
I feel equally (national
identity) and (ethnic
group)
I feel more (national
identity) than (ethnic
group)
I feel only (national
identity)
14. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings, 2012,2014
Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a
________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?
4
8
50
5
29
42
4
59
7
27
1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
I feel only (ethnic
group)
I feel more
(ethnic group)
than (national
identity)
I feel equally
(national
identity) and
(ethnic group)
I feel more
(national
identity) than
(ethnic group)
I feel only
(national
identity)
Missing
2014 2012
Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu
P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia
Telephone: +260 211 293 529
Fax: +260 211 295 178
Cell: +260 966 862 678
Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
15. Tribe or Nation: Intensity of tribal feelings, by Province
Question text: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Zambian and being a
________[R’s ETHNIC GROUP]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?
Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu
P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia
Telephone: +260 211 293 529
Fax: +260 211 295 178
Cell: +260 966 862 678
Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
26
24
21
12 12
8
6 5 5
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
18. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Key findings
■ A majority of Zambians (74%) say they prefer
democracy to any other kind of government.
■ Close to seven out of 10 Zambians (65%) say Zambia is
either a full democracy, or a democracy with minor
problems.
■ About eight out of 10 Zambians say the 2011 elections
were either completely free and fair, or free and fair
but with minor problems.
19. Demand for the democratic ideal
Question text: Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? STATEMENT 1:
Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.
STATEMENT 2: In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.
STATEMENT 3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.
10% 6%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democracy or no
democracy - it
doesn’t matter
Sometimes non-
democratic
preferable
Democracy
preferable
Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu
P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia
Telephone: +260 211 293 529
Fax: +260 211 295 178
Cell: +260 966 862 678
Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
20. Rejection of Undemocratic Alternatives
63
18
2
10
5 3
71
19
1 4 2 2
66
22
2 4 310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
One Party Rule Military rule One Man Rule
21. A verdict on Zambia’s democracy
Question: In your opinion how much of a democracy is Zambia today?
Not a
democracy
2% A democracy,
with major
problem
24%
A democracy,
but with minor
problems
34%
A full
democracy
31%
Do not
understand
question
/democracy
3%
Don’t know
6%
24. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Key findings
■ There is an association between ethnicity and support for
the democratic ideal (chi square test p-value =0.045).
■ Even individuals with strong ethnic feelings prefer the
democratic ideal.
■ There is also a relationship between ethnic feelings and the
extents to which individuals think Zambia is democracy (chi
square test p-value =0.000).
25. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Ethnic feelings and support of
democracy
ETHNIC FEELINGS
. SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY
Democracy or not:
Doesn't matter
Sometimes non-
democratic
preferable
Democracy
preferable
I feel only ethnic group .1% .4% 3.8%
I feel more ethnic group than
national identity
1.1% .5% 6.0%
I feel equally national identity
and (ethnic group
4.8% 2.9% 46.5%
I feel more national identity
than ethnic group
1.0% .2% 3.9%
I feel only national identity 3.8% 2.9% 22.0%
Total 10.7% 6.8% 82.3%
26. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Ethnic Feelings and extent of
democratization
ETHNIC FEELINGS
. EXTENT OF DEMOCRATIZATION
Not a
democracy
A
democracy,
with major
problems
A democracy,
but with minor
problems
A full
democracy
Do not
understand
question
/democracy
I feel only ethnic
group
.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9%
I feel more ethnic
group than national
identity
.3% 2.3% 3.1% 1.4%
I feel equally national
identity and (ethnic
group
.7% 14.5% 21.5% 14.2% 1.5%
I feel more national
identity than ethnic
group
.2% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% .2%
I feel only national
identity
1.0% 5.9% 9.0% 13.9% .8%
27. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Conclusions
• Zambia is an ethnically diverse country, and tribe is not
a mere placid label, but an identity with potential to
invoke strong tribal feelings that may undermine the
sense of nationalism.
• The intensity of tribal feelings appear to be growing.
• As a policy direction, government should seriously
embark on nation-building strategies to reverse this
apparent trend towards tribal inclinations.
• Though ethnically diverse, Zambian’s prefer
democracy to non democratic means of governance.
Plot 6465 Libala Road, Kalundu
P.O Box 51311, Lusaka, Zambia
Telephone: +260 211 293 529
Fax: +260 211 295 178
Cell: +260 966 862 678
Email: ruralnet@ruralnet.co.zm
Website: www.ruralnet.co.zm
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