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RUSSIA BEEPS Regional 2012


         PEER-LEARNING EVENT IN MOSCOW DEC 4-5TH,
                           2012




Veselin Kuntchev, World Bank, Private Sector Specialist,
vkuntchev@worldbank.org
Doing Business vs. BEEPS
                           2

 Doing Business
 Measures characteristics of the business
  environment based on case studies of the legal
  framework on national and sub-national (regional)
  level;
• BEEPS
 Firm level study of the business environment based
  on face-to-face interviews with managers from the
  private sector.
What is BEEPS?
                               3

• Objectives                                     • Target
  of the                                           audience
  project                                          and uses of
                                                   the data

                Objectives
                                    Audience




               Questionnaire       Methodology



• Survey                                         • Methodology
                                                   and
  instrument                                       implementation
  specifics                                        principles
Main objectives
                            4

 Objectives:
 To obtain an overall picture of the business
  environment of Russia utilizing globally comparable
  (130+ economies) survey methodology and
  instrument;
 To gather basic financial information that allows
  measuring the effect of the environment on selected
  quantitative variables (productivity, performance,
  access to credit, growth, employment, etc.)
Target Audience (1): entrepreneurs and investors
                       5
Target Audience (2): policymakers
                6
Target Audience (3): Academic Research
                  7
Methodology (1)
                                    8

 Representative sample of the non-agricultural
  economy.
 Universe:
    Manufacturing
    Services (retail, wholesale, hotels, restaurants, IT)
    Construction and Transport
 First priority to panel firms.
ISIC Rev.3.1
                          A - Agriculture, hunting and forestry
                                         B - Fishing
                                C - Mining and quarrying
                                    D - Manufacturing
                          E - Electricity, gas and water supply
                                    F - Construction
 G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and
                           personal and household goods
                              H - Hotels and restaurants
                    I - Transport, storage and communications
                               J - Financial intermediation
                   K - Real estate, renting and business activities
         L - Public administration and defense; compulsory social security
                                       M - Education
                               N - Health and social work
             O - Other community, social and personal service activities
P - Activities of private households as employers and undifferentiated production
                            activities of private households
                      Q - Extraterritorial organizations and bodies
Methodology (2)

 Regional implementation
 Global questionnaire with regional questions
 One private contractor for implementation
Survey instrument : ES (1)

 firm characteristics
 access to finance
 costs of inputs and labor
 workforce composition
 crime and bribery
 licensing and permits
 infrastructure
 competition
Survey instrument : ES (2)

 competition
 capacity utilization
 informality
 business-government relations
 innovation and technology
 performance measures
The Innovation Questionnaire (1)


 Innovation and technology:
   Goods and services innovation

   Process innovation

   Organizational innovation

   Marketing innovation

   Research and development




                                    8
The Innovation Questionnaire (2)

    Acquisition of external knowledge and use of computers
    Protection of innovation
 Management practices (manufacturing):
   Operations

   Monitoring

   Targets

   Incentives




                                                              9
BEEPS 2012 Russia Survey Design 1
Goal: Obtain stratified sample with large enough sample sizes for 30 required oblasts
(out of 37 sampled in total) and 20 selected industrial sectors to conduct statistically
robust analyses with levels of precision at a minimum 7.5% precision for 90%
confidence intervals about:
i. Estimates of population proportions (percentages), at the industry level; and
ii. Estimates of the mean of log of sales at the industry level.


                  1) Start with universe of 243,470 Russian firms




         2) Limit universe to all cities with good access, cities with panel
        firms, and all cities with more than 600 firms in covered regions
                                 (194,463 firms left)



            3) Panel firms from previous round contacted, active firms
                  identified (1004 contacted, 671 remain active)
BEEPS 2012 Russia Survey Design

 4) Select 18 industries, Other Manufacturing, and Other Services as sectors for stratification

Each sector must have at least 8 replacement firms on average . Some sectors were oversampled to minimize weights
                                           (e.g. wholesale, construction),




                   5) Stratification based on 5 super-regions, sector, and firm size

 Two stages due to software limitations (200 cell limit in due to computational limitations of MS Excel Solver). First
         stage 5 super-regions. Super-regions created from 8 federal regions based on size and population.




                       6) Stratification based on 37 oblasts, sector, and firm size

 Done proportionally based on the number of sample observations allocated to each oblast within the super-region




  7) Inclusion of panel firms into preferences for appropriate oblasts, sectors, and firm sizes
Distribution of Observations Across Super-
                   Regions


                   Required Oblasts   Extra Oblasts   Panel Firms in Extra Oblast    Minimum        Proportional      Sum
Federal Region           (1)               (2)                    (3)               120*(1) + (3)                  (Min. + Pro.)
    Central               8                2                      20                    981#            136           1117

  Northwest               4                0                      0                     480              0             480

Siberia/Far East          8                1                      20                    980             68            1048

   Southern               3                1                      19                    379             69             448

  Urals/Volga             7                3                      62                    902             205           1107

                         30                7                     121                   3722             478           4200




                   Note: Two of the Federal regions were combined
Russia BEEPS V Sampling design

design goal(s)
 find stratified sampling design that fulfills specific design goals
  while complying with certain constraints and having the least
  MSE deviation from a fully proportional sampling design

constraints
 limited size of population/universe (overall and per stratum)
 statistical precision requirements for strata (defined by firm size,
  ISIC sector and region)
 response rates and number of replacements
 incorporating sampling weights considerations
Distribution of Sample Observations Across Super-Regions
   SURVEY DESIGN - RUSSIA (6/3/2011) - Central

   Sample Size               Min for
   (n)           1117        each sector        32 = (1117/4200)*120
   Universe Size
                  87,243
   (N)
                                                                              UNIVERSE (N)

                15    20    22     24       25    26      28    29      31         33        36   45   50    51   52  55       60  63   64    72    OM    OS TOTAL
Central Small   204   121   862   179      204    223    390    544    221        151        233 4465 1301 13797 2756 627     675 1111 307    902   696   33 30002
       Medium   511   252 1296 432         431    381    587 1024 400             354        392 7903 2004 21754 4129 745     854 1530 572 1286 1351 78 48266
        Large 299 31 190 125                99    149 93 230 98                    94        91 1308 433 3957 565 145 143 223 114 172 377 39 8975
        Total 1014 404 2348 736            734    753 1070 1798 719               599        716 13676 3738 39508 7450 1517 1672 2864 993 2360 2424 150 87243



SAMPLE
DESIGN (n)

              15      20    22    24       25    26     28     29     31     33         36     45   50   51    52   55   60    63   64   72   OM    OS TOTAL
Central Small  9      10    12    10       10    10     11     10     10     10         11     20   11   139    7   12   12    13   10   12    9    10 370
       Medium 13      12    17    13       13    12     14     16     13     13         13     64   20   241   25   14   14    18   14   17   18    11 604
       Large 10       9      3     9       9     9       7     6       9     9          9       0    0   13     0   6    5      1    8    3    5    11 143
        Total 32      32    32    32       32    32     32     32     32     32         32     83   32   394   32   32   32    32   32   32   32    32 1117 1117

                32    32    32    32       32    32     32     32     32     32         32     32   32   32    32   32   32    32   32   32   32    32    704
Distribution of Sample Observations Across Oblasts in a Super-
                                      Region
 Region
 Sample               15   20   22   24   25   26   28   29   31   33   36   45   51   52   55   63   64   72   OM   OS TOTAL
 Frame
 Central     Small    9    11   12   10   10   10   11   10   10   10   10   31 151 10      12   13   10   12   9    10 371
             Medium
                   13      12   17   13   13   12   14   16   13   13   13 76 253 27        14   18   14   17   18   22 608
             Large 10       9    3    9    9   10    7    6    9    9    9  0 25 0           6    1    8    3    5    0 138
             Total 32      32   32   32   32   32   32   32   32   32   32 107 429 37       32   32   32   32   32   32 1117

Ob. Sample
  Frame
 Belgorod
               1      0    1    1    1    2    1    2    1    2    0    3    5    18   1    1    1    0    1    1    2
  Region                                                                                                                 44
 Belgorod
               2      2    2    2    3    2    2    2    3    2    3    1    6    23   1    2    2    3    2    1    2
  Region                                                                                                                 66
 Belgorod
               3      1    0    0    1    0    0    1    0    0    0    0    1    5    0    0    0    0    0    1    0
  Region                                                                                                                 10
                      3    3    3    5    4    3    5    4    4    3    4    12   46   2    3    3    3    3    3    4   120 120
  Kaluga
               1      0    1    1    1    1    0    1    1    1    1    0    3    20   1    1    1    1    2    1    1
  Region                                                                                                                 39
  Kaluga
               2      1    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    2    3    2    5    25   2    2    2    2    1    2    1
  Region                                                                                                                 63
  Kaluga
               3      1    1    0    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    5    0    0    0    0    0    1    1
  Region                                                                                                                 18
                      2    4    3    4    4    3    4    3    4    5    3    9    50   3    3    3    3    3    4    3   120 120

      Cellosz = [(No. sample obs in oblasto/No. sample obs in super-region)*No. obs in sector in
      region]*
                  (universe size for cellosz/universe size for oblasto and sectors)
                                      Where: o=Oblast, s=Sector, z=Size
Results of the study available at: enterpisesurveys.org
Thank you very much!

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RUSSIA BEEPS Regional 2012

  • 1. RUSSIA BEEPS Regional 2012 PEER-LEARNING EVENT IN MOSCOW DEC 4-5TH, 2012 Veselin Kuntchev, World Bank, Private Sector Specialist, vkuntchev@worldbank.org
  • 2. Doing Business vs. BEEPS 2  Doing Business  Measures characteristics of the business environment based on case studies of the legal framework on national and sub-national (regional) level; • BEEPS  Firm level study of the business environment based on face-to-face interviews with managers from the private sector.
  • 3. What is BEEPS? 3 • Objectives • Target of the audience project and uses of the data Objectives Audience Questionnaire Methodology • Survey • Methodology and instrument implementation specifics principles
  • 4. Main objectives 4  Objectives:  To obtain an overall picture of the business environment of Russia utilizing globally comparable (130+ economies) survey methodology and instrument;  To gather basic financial information that allows measuring the effect of the environment on selected quantitative variables (productivity, performance, access to credit, growth, employment, etc.)
  • 5. Target Audience (1): entrepreneurs and investors 5
  • 6. Target Audience (2): policymakers 6
  • 7. Target Audience (3): Academic Research 7
  • 8. Methodology (1) 8  Representative sample of the non-agricultural economy.  Universe:  Manufacturing  Services (retail, wholesale, hotels, restaurants, IT)  Construction and Transport  First priority to panel firms.
  • 9. ISIC Rev.3.1 A - Agriculture, hunting and forestry B - Fishing C - Mining and quarrying D - Manufacturing E - Electricity, gas and water supply F - Construction G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods H - Hotels and restaurants I - Transport, storage and communications J - Financial intermediation K - Real estate, renting and business activities L - Public administration and defense; compulsory social security M - Education N - Health and social work O - Other community, social and personal service activities P - Activities of private households as employers and undifferentiated production activities of private households Q - Extraterritorial organizations and bodies
  • 10. Methodology (2)  Regional implementation  Global questionnaire with regional questions  One private contractor for implementation
  • 11. Survey instrument : ES (1)  firm characteristics  access to finance  costs of inputs and labor  workforce composition  crime and bribery  licensing and permits  infrastructure  competition
  • 12. Survey instrument : ES (2)  competition  capacity utilization  informality  business-government relations  innovation and technology  performance measures
  • 13. The Innovation Questionnaire (1)  Innovation and technology:  Goods and services innovation  Process innovation  Organizational innovation  Marketing innovation  Research and development 8
  • 14. The Innovation Questionnaire (2)  Acquisition of external knowledge and use of computers  Protection of innovation  Management practices (manufacturing):  Operations  Monitoring  Targets  Incentives 9
  • 15. BEEPS 2012 Russia Survey Design 1 Goal: Obtain stratified sample with large enough sample sizes for 30 required oblasts (out of 37 sampled in total) and 20 selected industrial sectors to conduct statistically robust analyses with levels of precision at a minimum 7.5% precision for 90% confidence intervals about: i. Estimates of population proportions (percentages), at the industry level; and ii. Estimates of the mean of log of sales at the industry level. 1) Start with universe of 243,470 Russian firms 2) Limit universe to all cities with good access, cities with panel firms, and all cities with more than 600 firms in covered regions (194,463 firms left) 3) Panel firms from previous round contacted, active firms identified (1004 contacted, 671 remain active)
  • 16. BEEPS 2012 Russia Survey Design 4) Select 18 industries, Other Manufacturing, and Other Services as sectors for stratification Each sector must have at least 8 replacement firms on average . Some sectors were oversampled to minimize weights (e.g. wholesale, construction), 5) Stratification based on 5 super-regions, sector, and firm size Two stages due to software limitations (200 cell limit in due to computational limitations of MS Excel Solver). First stage 5 super-regions. Super-regions created from 8 federal regions based on size and population. 6) Stratification based on 37 oblasts, sector, and firm size Done proportionally based on the number of sample observations allocated to each oblast within the super-region 7) Inclusion of panel firms into preferences for appropriate oblasts, sectors, and firm sizes
  • 17. Distribution of Observations Across Super- Regions Required Oblasts Extra Oblasts Panel Firms in Extra Oblast Minimum Proportional Sum Federal Region (1) (2) (3) 120*(1) + (3) (Min. + Pro.) Central 8 2 20 981# 136 1117 Northwest 4 0 0 480 0 480 Siberia/Far East 8 1 20 980 68 1048 Southern 3 1 19 379 69 448 Urals/Volga 7 3 62 902 205 1107 30 7 121 3722 478 4200 Note: Two of the Federal regions were combined
  • 18. Russia BEEPS V Sampling design design goal(s)  find stratified sampling design that fulfills specific design goals while complying with certain constraints and having the least MSE deviation from a fully proportional sampling design constraints  limited size of population/universe (overall and per stratum)  statistical precision requirements for strata (defined by firm size, ISIC sector and region)  response rates and number of replacements  incorporating sampling weights considerations
  • 19. Distribution of Sample Observations Across Super-Regions SURVEY DESIGN - RUSSIA (6/3/2011) - Central Sample Size Min for (n) 1117 each sector 32 = (1117/4200)*120 Universe Size 87,243 (N) UNIVERSE (N) 15 20 22 24 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 45 50 51 52 55 60 63 64 72 OM OS TOTAL Central Small 204 121 862 179 204 223 390 544 221 151 233 4465 1301 13797 2756 627 675 1111 307 902 696 33 30002 Medium 511 252 1296 432 431 381 587 1024 400 354 392 7903 2004 21754 4129 745 854 1530 572 1286 1351 78 48266 Large 299 31 190 125 99 149 93 230 98 94 91 1308 433 3957 565 145 143 223 114 172 377 39 8975 Total 1014 404 2348 736 734 753 1070 1798 719 599 716 13676 3738 39508 7450 1517 1672 2864 993 2360 2424 150 87243 SAMPLE DESIGN (n) 15 20 22 24 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 45 50 51 52 55 60 63 64 72 OM OS TOTAL Central Small 9 10 12 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 20 11 139 7 12 12 13 10 12 9 10 370 Medium 13 12 17 13 13 12 14 16 13 13 13 64 20 241 25 14 14 18 14 17 18 11 604 Large 10 9 3 9 9 9 7 6 9 9 9 0 0 13 0 6 5 1 8 3 5 11 143 Total 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 83 32 394 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 1117 1117 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 704
  • 20. Distribution of Sample Observations Across Oblasts in a Super- Region Region Sample 15 20 22 24 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 45 51 52 55 63 64 72 OM OS TOTAL Frame Central Small 9 11 12 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 31 151 10 12 13 10 12 9 10 371 Medium 13 12 17 13 13 12 14 16 13 13 13 76 253 27 14 18 14 17 18 22 608 Large 10 9 3 9 9 10 7 6 9 9 9 0 25 0 6 1 8 3 5 0 138 Total 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 107 429 37 32 32 32 32 32 32 1117 Ob. Sample Frame Belgorod 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 0 3 5 18 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 Region 44 Belgorod 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 6 23 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 Region 66 Belgorod 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Region 10 3 3 3 5 4 3 5 4 4 3 4 12 46 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 120 120 Kaluga 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 3 20 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 Region 39 Kaluga 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 5 25 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 Region 63 Kaluga 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Region 18 2 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 5 3 9 50 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 120 120 Cellosz = [(No. sample obs in oblasto/No. sample obs in super-region)*No. obs in sector in region]* (universe size for cellosz/universe size for oblasto and sectors) Where: o=Oblast, s=Sector, z=Size
  • 21. Results of the study available at: enterpisesurveys.org
  • 22. Thank you very much!

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. MSE= mean squared error