The Real Estate Report November/December, local market trends San Francisco: Facebook Employees Get Vested and Market Rate Outlook by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2012 Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
Inside This Issue
2800 Van Ness Avenue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Oct 12 Sep 12 Oct 11
SAN FRANCISCO
Home Sales: 244 241 190
Median Price: $ 844,500 $ 670,000 $741,500
Facebook Employees Get Vested Av erage Price: $1,322,171 $ 844,479 $995,590
October 31st was the first day Facebook median priced homes, they could buy 575 homes. Sale/List Price Ratio: 103.1% 104.5% 100.3%
employees could sell their stock. Not surprisingly, That’s about one months of sales. Day s on Market: 44 50 51
stock volume was almost double the 13-week (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
If they only put 20% down and took a mortgage for
moving average. Oct 12 Sep 12 Oct 11
the rest, which any accountant would recommend,
There were 40 million shares sold above the then they could buy 2,875 homes: five months of Condo Sales: 268 248 176
moving average. At an average price of $21, that’s sales. Median Price: $ 760,000 $ 705,000 $644,500
over $800 million dollars. It’s anybody’s guess how Av erage Price: $ 887,124 $ 828,376 $701,570
With only 658 properties, homes and condos/lofts,
much of that extra volume was due to employee
currently for sale, the impact of either scenario will Sale/List Price Ratio: 103.1% 101.0% 98.2%
sales. Day s on Market: 51 50 75
have a major impact on the real estate market.
San Francisco Price Differences
from January & Peak & Trough Of course, it’s doubtful every employee is in the SALES MOMENTUM…
Hom es: detached market for a home. for homes rose 2.2 points to +10.5. For condos,
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough sales momentum gained 3.3 points to +17.6.
Nevertheless, the impact on the market was
3-month 19% -19% 22% Jun-07 Feb-12
definitely felt in October. PRICING MOMENTUM…
12-month 6% -19% 6% Apr-08 Mar-12 continued moving upward in October, rising 1.1
Hom es: attached OCTOBER MARKET STATISTICS points to +3. The number for condos rose 1.7
3-month 19% -6% 19% Jul-08 Jan-12 Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 1.2% points to +6.2.
12-month 8% -9% 9% Aug-08 Jan-12 from September, and were up 28.4% year-over-
year. WE CALCULATE…
How will this sudden infusion of wealth affect the momentum by using a 12-month moving average
The median price for homes rose 13.9% year-over-
real estate market in San Francisco? to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s
year. The average price jumped 32.8%! 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a
Let’s speculate! If only $400 million was cashed out percentage showing market momentum.
by Facebook employees and they paid cash for
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS…
The median price for condos gained
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change 17.9% year-over-year. Sales were up
52.3% from last October.
30.0%
This is an tough market for buyers. Be
20.0% calm and realistic. If you don’t know
10.0% where to begin, give me a call.
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASO
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
© 2012 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Nov 2, 2012 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage track- derwriting standards for Commercial and Industrial
er revealed that the average rate for 30-year fixed- loans eased during the third quarter, those for resi-
07-12
rate mortgages declined by five basis points (0.05%) dential mortgages barely budged. In reality, with
04-12 to 3.71%, erasing last week's rise. Meanwhile, the Fannie, Freddie and FHA guidelines dictating lending
01-12 FRMI's 15-year companion moved lower by four conditions for the vast majority of the market, there is
10-11 basis points (.04%) to again arrive at 3.02%. FHA- not much private lending outside of Jumbos where
07-11
04-11 backed 30-year FRMs rose by two hundredths of a lenders have much to say about how a loan is writ-
01-11 percentage point, as the most viable option for credit- ten. Until there is a more robust private market -- and
10-10 or equity-impaired borrowers saw its average lifted to no one knows when that will be, given Dodd-Frank
07-10
04-10 3.35%. Finally, the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid and new lending and accounting rules -- we shouldn't
01-10 ARMs eased by four basis points, slipping to 2.72%, expect to see much by way of easing happening
10-09 a value seen three times in the past four weeks. here.
07-09
04-09 Construction spending did rebound in September In the meanwhile, and while New York, New Jersey
01-09
10-08
after a slow August. The 0.6% increase was again and other states affected by Sandy have some pretty
07-08 fostered by a 2.8% rise in spending on residential wealthy sections, there are many, many people of
04-08 projects, which was sufficient to offset declines of modest or even meager means who have been
01-08 0.1% in commercial building and a 0.8% drop in pub- wiped out by Sandy's fury. If you're of a mind to help,
10-07
07-07 lic works projects. Given the devastation from Sandy you might consider a donation to the Red Cross they
04-07 up and down the coast, we may see more spending can always use a few extra dollars to further their
01-07 on both private and public projects in the months mission.
10-06
07-06 ahead as rebuilding of roads, bridges, marinas and
04-06 businesses takes place.
01-06
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Spending on residential projects won't be getting any
lift from easing lending conditions, which remained
mostly unchanged again, according to the Federal
Reserve's survey of Senior Loan Officers. While un-
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
The chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000's)
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300
compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming, $1,100 200
"expanded conforming," and $900 150
jumbo.
$700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 844,500 $1,322,171 244 44 103.1% 13.9% 32.8% 28.4% 26.0% 56.6% 1.2%
D1: Northw est $1,062,500 $1,712,040 24 36 104.1% -20.0% 4.9% 71.4% -8.8% 23.5% 118.2%
D2: Central West $ 750,000 $ 795,753 45 46 104.7% 11.1% 12.0% 9.8% -12.3% -6.5% 136.8%
D3: Southw est $ 635,000 $ 762,000 9 46 105.9% 11.1% 29.6% -10.0% 0.0% 22.4% -40.0%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 925,000 $1,000,255 29 42 104.5% 12.2% 11.7% 11.5% 6.3% -3.4% 31.8%
D5: Central $1,350,000 $1,487,403 36 28 103.7% -5.1% 3.5% 28.6% -2.9% 3.0% 50.0%
D6: Central North $1,550,000 $1,758,636 11 27 103.1% 24.0% 40.7% 1000.0% -15.2% -3.8% 450.0%
D7: North $3,785,000 $4,626,111 18 60 99.9% 54.7% 53.8% 100.0% 48.4% 16.9% 500.0%
D8: Northeast $1,295,000 $1,464,125 8 38 103.2% -30.4% -41.8% 166.7% -26.6% -35.6% 166.7%
D9: Central East $ 800,000 $1,075,900 15 37 104.8% 5.7% 38.3% -25.0% -3.5% 22.8% 0.0%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 540,000 $ 527,214 49 60 105.9% 24.7% 24.4% 40.0% 10.2% 6.2% -10.9%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASO
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2011 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
In San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
foreclosure process, fell 57.3% in September from the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
year before. They were down 22.8% from August. back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before In September, cancellations were off 28.1% from Au-
sale, jumped 20.7% from August, but were off 20.1% gust. Year-over-year, cancellations were down 34.7%.
year-over-year.
Properties going back-to-bank dropped 13% from Au-
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are gust, and were down 58.3% year-over-year.
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
The total number of properties that have had a notice of
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
default filed decreased by 29.1% compared to last year.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
They were also down 7.6% from August.
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments, like bankruptcy. The total number of properties scheduled for sale de-
clined by 22.8% year-over-year. Properties scheduled
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
(Continued on page 4)
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
Table Definitions
$900 300 _______________
$800 250
$700 200 Median Price
The price at which 50% of pric-
$600 150
es were higher and 50%were
$500 100 lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO Add all prices and divide by the
7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales.
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
SP/LP
October Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price.
Prices Unit Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI
San Francisco $ 760,000 $ 887,124 268 51 103.1% 17.9% 26.4% 52.3% 7.8% 7.1% 8.1% Days of Inventory, or how many
D1: Northw est $ 957,500 $ 989,000 8 33 115.6% 39.4% 44.2% 100.0% 37.4% 29.3% -20.0% days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
D2: Central West $ 702,500 $ 726,375 8 43 103.1% -5.8% 4.4% 100.0% -10.3% -24.3% 166.7% rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ 405,000 $ 405,000 2 285 104.7% 82.8% 82.8% 0.0% 24.6% 25.8% -50.0%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 450,000 $ 487,000 7 45 102.2% 28.9% 32.7% 133.3% 50.5% 62.9% 600.0% Pend
D5: Central $ 875,000 $ 906,848 46 41 106.5% 18.7% 24.3% 70.4% -8.8% -8.0% 31.4% Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 553,750 $ 571,736 36 56 103.6% -18.6% -12.1% 89.5% -10.9% -8.5% 20.0%
D7: North $1,061,000 $1,245,833 24 28 106.0% 53.9% 41.0% 33.3% -19.0% -1.8% 60.0% Inven
D8: Northeast $ 827,000 $1,209,995 46 65 98.2% 32.9% 81.5% 4.5% 20.9% 16.5% 39.4% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 758,000 $ 813,639 86 48 102.7% 14.8% 9.2% 68.6% 3.5% -9.2% 1.2% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 275,000 $ 267,738 3 115 93.7% 13.4% -3.8% -25.0% -20.9% -21.8% -50.0%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
(Continued from page 3)
25.0
for sale dropped 0.4% month-over- 20.0
month. 15.0
10.0
The number of properties owned by the 5.0
banks fell 25% year-over-year. Banks 0.0
now own about 490 properties in San -5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
Francisco. At the current rate of sales, -10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
this is about a four weeks supply. Five -15.0
to six months supply of total inventory -20.0
signals a balanced market. -25.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
Data supplied by
http://foreclosureradar.com.
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
-10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.