This paper was presented on the 8th November 2012 at an SCI conference on Processing Lignocellulosic Biomass. The conference was held at the UK's Centre for Process Innovation (CPI) at the Wilton Centre, Redcar, UK. The main focus of the event was on the UK role for biomass conversion, and the business and commericial implications of the technologies being developed.

1. NNFCC
Future of Lignocellulose processing
Dr Adrian Higson
November 2012

2. NNFCC
A specialist bio-based economy consultancy based in York, UK.
Company Vision
We view bio-based technologies as key components
of the low carbon economy delivering economic,
social and environmental benefits.
We believe the bioeconomy will create sustainable
business opportunities for feedstock suppliers,
technology and project developers, manufacturers
and investors.
Company Mission
To provide clients with a holistic view of feedstock, technology, policy and market
development across the bioeconomy, enabling them to make informed business decisions
and develop sustainable business strategies.
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3. NNFCC
The value of lignocellulose
Increasing value
Decreasing volume
© NNFCC

4. NNFCC
Biomass – A love hate relationship!
• Available on demand
Strengths
• Carbon source
• Cost
Weaknesses
• Physical nature
• Energy generation (heat and power)
Opportunities • Liquid transport fuels
• Chemicals and materials
• Competition for land
Threats
• Environmental pressure
© NNFCC

5. NNFCC
Development options
© NNFCC Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC

6. NNFCC
Drivers of market development
 Technology Push of crude oil, food basics and agricultural materials have
The relative costs (enabling technologies)
 Market Pull (new function or brand opportunities)15 years.
moved significantly over the last
 Political Intervention (market failures)
 Feedstock Economics (end prices increasingly linked to energy
All raw material of cheap oil)

7. NNFCC
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the
future.
Niels Bohr
© NNFCC

8. NNFCC
Perspective
Amera’s Law
"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run."
Thoughts on 2020
 Timeframes for commercial deployment generally under estimated
 Financing, construction, commissioning and achieving capacity take time
 Expansion of current technologies
 Technologies currently in demonstration move to commercial

9. NNFCC
Longer term perspectives
• Feedstock constraints
Power • Increasing technology competition
• Difficult to add value
• Feedstock constraints
• Increasing technology competition
Fuel (electrification)
• Difficult to add value
• Technology opportunities (aviation fuels)
• Limited market opportunities
Materials • Considerable added value
• No feedstock constraints
• Less feedstock constraints
• Potential to add significant value
Chemicals
• Technology opportunities
• Specific market opportunities

10. NNFCC
A high value market for
lignocellulose?
1967 – There’s a great future in plastics
2012 - There’s a great future in bio-
based plastics
The Graduate (1967),
Plastics production: projected growth
2000
1600
Plastic production: medium growth
Million tonnes
1200 Medium
2020 339 million tonnes
Low
2030 434 million tonnes 800
High
2050 712 million tonnes 400
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
© NNFCC

11. NNFCC
Ethylene value chain
60%
Ethanol Ethylene Polyethylenes
7%
Styrene
Polymers/Rubbers
Monomer
Ethanol production ~ 70 million tonnes
Ethylene 14%
Polyester
Oxide/Glycol
Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes
12%
EDC PVC
7%
Other Alpha Olefins
PVA
PET Collaborative
© NNFCC

12. NNFCC
The developing bio-based chemical industry
• Ethylene glycol  Opportunities for bio-based
• Epichlorohydrin C3 and C4 intermediates
Today • Lactic acid
• Propanediol  Niche opportunities in
compostable packaging
• Succinic acid
• Butanol
Near term • Butanediol
 Value adding opportunities
• Propylene in co-polymer development
• Isoprene
Medium • Butadiene
term • Acrylic acid
• Terephthalic acid
© NNFCC

13. NNFCC
Market expansion and development activity
Currently over 50 companies actively developing and commercialising over 50
bulk chemicals
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Methanol
Formic Acid
Ethanol
Ethylene
Ethylene Oxide
Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
Acetic Acid
Ethyl acetate
Epichlorohydrin
Bio-based chemicals
Acetone
isoPropanol
Propylene
Propylene Glycol
1,3-Propanediol
Lactic acid
Acrylic Acid
n-Butanol
iso-Butanol
iso-Butylene
Butadiene
Succinic acid
2,3-Butanediol
1,4-Butanediol
Tetrahydrofuran
Isoprene
Adipic acid
HMDA
Benzene
Toluene
Paraxylene
Terephthalic acid
Styrene
© NNFCC Source: NNFCC

14. NNFCC
Succinic acid value chain
Polybutylene
Succinic Acid 1,4-Butanediol Terephthalate
Tetrahydrofuran Copolyester Ethers
Deicers/Coolent
Polytetramethylene
Ether Glycol
Solvent Thermoplastic
Plasticisers Polyurethanes
g-Butyrolactone Spandex Fibres
Fuel Additives
Fine & Speciality
Chemicals
N-Methyl -2- N-Vinyl-2-
Pyrrolidone 2-Pyrrolidone
Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Fine & Speciality Polyvinyl
Chemicals Chemicals Pyrrolidone
© NNFCC

15. NNFCC
Bio-based polymer industry
Industry demonstrating double digit
growth.
Near term growth dominated by
expansion of the bio-based ethylene
value chain
Growth in novel bio-based plastics
as polymer blend applications
expand
New monomers entering the market
© NNFCC

16. NNFCC
Implications on land requirements
2050 Land demand for bioplastics production
50
40 Non arable land Arable Land
Plastics market growth 2.5% p.a.
Million ha
30
Bioplastics market share 20%
20
10
0
Development Scenario
Under a high growth scenario, market penetration of 40% and 5% YoY growth, the land
demand for bioplastics may approach sustainable limits, without the use of residues.
© NNFCC Source: NNFCC

17. NNFCC
Land requirements – the bigger picture
© NNFCC Source: NNFCC

18. NNFCC
The challenges
Technology Strategic Sustainability
• Biomass crop • Integration into • Direct land use
yields existing value change
• Biomass chains • Indirect land use
composition • Financing change
• Logistics • Policy robustness • Biodiversity
• Enzyme • Standards & • Emission (land,
development labels air, water)
• Fermentation • Public • Social impacts
yields procurement
• Novel products

19. NNFCC
Challenges for industrial biotechnology
 Chemical production
 How to process lignin
 Understand and control lignin biochemisty
 Integration of chemistry and biotechnology
 Metabolic engineering and synthetic biology
 Increase cellular productivity - how to handle toxic products
 Continuous extraction
 Cellular compartmentalisation
 Working in dilute aqueous environments
 Product isolation and purification – in situ processing
 Process intensification

20. NNFCC
Pre-treat or fractionate?
The lowest cost process versus the highest value product slate
Option A – Clean fractionation of three
streams - requires value adding outlets
for 2 or more streams
Option B – Pre-treat to allow
carbohydrate processing – requires high
conversion yields if fuel is
target product
Option C – Convert to
homogeneous intermediate

21. NNFCC
Lignocellulose gasification
 Gasification technology at demonstration / early commercial
 Potential for cost savings through innovation.
 Higher process efficiencies than combustion, therefore increasing the
relative GHG emission savings.
 Carbon efficient power production facilitates the migration of the car
and taxi fleet towards electric vehicles.
 Gasification is a unifying technology for the efficient production of
power, heat and transport fuels (cars, light/heavy road vehicles and
aviation).

22. NNFCC
Synthesis gas based fermentation
Aug. 13, 2012 - Joint Development Agreement for
Bio-Based Butadiene

23. NNFCC
Bio-based economy Chemical
Cellulose
will depend on co- Transformation
development
Hemicellulose Fermentation Chemicals
Fractionation
Lignin Liquid Fuels
Lignocellulose Drying Gasification Power
Heat
Pyrolysis
Pretreatment
Combustion

24. NNFCC
Requirements
 Development with environmental caution
 Public investment to support and mitigate financial risks
 More consideration of development pathways
 Push policies towards sectors with limited alternatives

25. NNFCC
Development should maximising resource use
raw material
Material Cycle Energy Cycle

26. NNFCC
The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy
for more information contact us
Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
+44 (0) 1904 435182
Follow us on Twitter @NNFCC
• Future Market Analysis • Technology evaluation & associated
• Feedstock Logistics Planning due diligence
• Sustainability Strategy • Project feasibility assessment
Development • Policy and regulatory support