The document summarizes the findings of a survey conducted by AFNIC's R&D team on technology trends over the next 10-15 years. It provides details on the structure and respondents of the survey, the methodology used to analyze responses and identify consensus views and scenarios of divergence. Key results sections show the questions with a consensus among respondents regarding future trends in global Internet architecture, Internet naming and identifiers, and user trends. Areas of divergence where two opposing views emerged are also highlighted. The document concludes by examining whether the identified consensus views still apply within different professional categories of respondents.

1. Findings of the AFNIC’s “Technology Backdrop” Survey Mohsen Souissi 1 Feb 2011 AFNIC - R&D

14. Results: Consensus on part A (“Global Internet Architecture”) 8% 19% 73% 4. Mobile phone services will be based on IP 10% 17% 73% 27. Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against Internet infrastructure and applications will increase 9% 9% 82% 24. Open standards will remain dominant for Internet applications 9% 7% 85% 2. The Internet will remain the dominant infrastructure for worldwide data exchange Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (4 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

15. Results: Consensus on part A (cont’) (“Global Internet Architecture”) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 11% 24% 65% 5. IPv6 will be more widely used than IPv4 on the Internet 12% 23% 65% 15. Many new customer services will be based on sensor networks and RFID 15% 20% 65% 1. The number of regular users of the Internet will exceed 4 billion 13% 21% 66% 31. IP mobility services (&quot;Mobile IP&quot; or some alternative solution) will be widely deployed 13% 18% 69% 19. Pervasive environmental concerns will push Internet architects and equipment vendors to seek and adopt &quot;green&quot; solutions both for hardware components and for communication protocols Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus)

16. Results: Consensus on part B (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) 12% 19% 69% 45. The DNS will be more secure than it is today 12% 16% 72% 33. Internet naming will continue to be based on the current hierarchical and distributed structure 12% 15% 73% 46. The domain name will remain the basis of the majority of identification systems used by Internet applications (for example: URL, URN, URI...) 14% 8% 78% 54. The Internet user will use multiple digital identities Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus) 9% 17% 74% 36. The DNS, as an infrastructure, will be considered even more critical than it is today Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (1 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

17. Results: Consensus on part B (cont’) (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) 12% 26% 62% 43. The root and the majority of DNS zones will be signed with DNSSEC 11% 27% 62% 37. Besides its well-known role, the DNS will increasingly be used as a &quot;mapping&quot; system by new Internet infrastructure protocols(routing, multi-homing...) 10% 26% 64% 34. The DNS resolution mechanism currently based on &quot;Client-Server&quot; architecture and requiring a DNS tree traversal will remain dominant 15% 16% 69% 56. Privacy and &quot;User's choice&quot; will be at the center of Society's debate on the evolution of digital-identity technologies Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

18. Results: Consensus on part C (“User trends”) Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (4 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 7% 18% 76% 67. The need for traceability of goods will spread to all economic sectors 9% 7% 84% 61. Geolocation-based services will be integrated in a wide variety of mass consumer products 9% 5% 86% 66. Cars, trains, planes and ships will provide to travelers the same electronic services (including Internet access) as at the office or at home, in an almost transparent way (without taking the quality of service into account) 8% 2% 90% 59. A computer, a phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA) as well as new (forthcoming) types of equipment will support a wide set of common features for the general public

19. Results: Consensus on part C (cont’) (“User trends”) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 15% 12% 73% 60. Home automation services will reach maturity and will be affordable by all (at least in developed countries) 13% 15% 73% 58. The number of mobile phone (all generations included) subscribers will exceed 6 billion Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (6 consensus)

21. Results: Divergence on part A (“Global Internet Architecture”) 0.76 10% 25% 40% 35% NV 9. A new type of architecture for Internet applications will be discovered and will be dominant 0.76 10% 35% 40% 25% NV 8. The majority of Internet applications will be based on peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture 2.06 6% 43% 20% 37% 2S 20. Energy consumption will be the main limitation on development of network *infrastructure* Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (3 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question

22. Results: Divergence on part A (cont’) (“Global Internet Architecture”) 1.66 1% 39% 23% 38% 2S 21. Attention to energy saving will be the main driving force for development of network *infrastructure* 1.55 1% 37% 24% 38% 2S 18. Proprietary standards, competing with the Internet ones, will emerge in order to facilitate development of the Internet of Things 1.55 5% 35% 24% 40% 2S 11. The &quot;end-to-end&quot; principle will be re-established and will underpin again Internet communications to the detriment of gateways (such as NAT) which will gradually disappear Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (6 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question

23. Results: Divergence on part B (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (2 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question 1.95 8% 36% 20% 44% 2S 49. In telephony networks, the phone number will remain the most used identifier by both end-user and intermediate systems Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (3 divergences) 0.66 10% 23% 43% 34% NV 52. The Semantic Web will govern information exchange between people 2.76 10% 47% 15% 37% 2S 55. Concerns about privacy will be eroded due to widespread uptake of services based on digital identities

24. Results: Divergence on part C (“User trends”) Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (2 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question 2.0 3% 41% 20% 39% Deux écoles Most of face-to-face meetings/conferences will be replaced by (network) remote-meetings/remote-conferences Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (3 divergences) 0.43 6% 20% 54% 26% NV 70. A new model for Internet applications (as seen by users) will emerge and will subsequently become dominant 0.75 11% 36% 40% 24% NV 69. The majority of Internet applications (as seen by users) will follow a peer-to-peer model