Sustainable Forest Management, Mitigation and Adaptation & Initiatives to Encourage Communities to Preserve Forests.

1. DR.VINCENT ONGUSO OEBA
voeba@yahoo.co.ukor voeba@kefri.org
Mobile: +254-720-475053
+254-733-244911
ROLE OF FORESTRY IN CLIMATE CHANGESustainable Forest Management, Mitigation and Adaptation & Initiativesto EncourageCommunities to Preserve Forests
Executive climate change and carbon trading course 12-16th Nov 2012, KEFRI: Africa Carbon Exchange

2. 1.0. Introduction
Forests play a significant role in improving people’s livelihoods directly and indirectly through provision of:
Wood and non-wood forest products.
Importantly, they regulate climate change through carbon sequestration.
They stabilize soil, treat waste, provide habitats, and offer opportunity for recreation.
These benefits are on continuous decrease due to reduction of area under trees

3. Climate Change Phenomena
11/16/2012

4. Introduction-Evidence of climate change
Melting of Ice Indicators & Effect
 Mt. Kenya lost 92% of its ice mass while
Mt. Kilimanjaro lost 82% which comprises
an important source of river streams and
springs
 There are changes in the ecosystem and
loss of biodiversity, spread of infectious
diseases such as malaria since increase of
temperature favours the breeding of
disease carrying insects, animals and
microbes in the places they did not exist
before.
 More frequent and severe with time like La
Nina of 1999-2001
 Flooding-Budalangi, Nzoia
 Severe socio-economic impact: loss of life,
livestock, migration, poor yield
11/16/2012

5. 2.0. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTS

6. 2.0. Global Impact of CC on Forest
Climatefactor
Cell level
Organism level
Species level
Ecosystem level
CO2 increase
-Photosynthetic rate increase
-Stomatalconductance
reduction
-Growth rate increase
-Water use efficiency
increase
-Seed production increase
-Decreased seed mortality
-Increased recruitment
Period for individuals to reach maturity
-Changes in individual density?
-Biomass production
increase
-Alteration in species
competitiveness
-Changes in species
composition
Temperature increase
-Photosynthesis increase
or decrease
-Photosynthetic period can increase
-Transpiration increase
-Primary production
positive or negative
changes
-Seed production changes
Regeneration rate changes
Possible increase in tree mortality.
Negative consequences for
species sensitive to temperature changes
Alterations in species
Competitiveness.
Species’ composition
Changes.
Soil mineralization
Increase.
Rainfall regime
changes
Growth rate decrease
Seed mortality rate
increase
Increase of mature individuals’
mortality rate
Alternation in species
competitiveness
Species composition
changes

7. Impact of Climate Change on Forests: Regional & National Perspectives
Forest and climate interaction: Globally
The climate is an important determinant of the geographical distribution, composition and productivity of forests, species populations and migration, the occurrence of pests and diseases and of forests regeneration.
Forests expected to respond to changes in temperature and to increases /decreases in precipitation brought about on by climate change
Changes in different climate variables would result in adjustments at different levels
Projected impacts of CC: AfricaIn the case of Africa, changes induced by climate change are also likely to result in species rangeshifts, as well as in changes in tree productivity, adding stress to forest ecosystems.

8. ASIA
Boreal forests in North Asia would move further north. A projected large increase in taiga is likely to displace tundra, while the northward movement of the tundra will in turn decrease polar deserts.
Large populations of many other species could also be extirpated as a result of the synergistic effects of climatechange and habitat fragmentation.
The areal coverage of broad-leaved Korean pine forests is projected to decrease by 20 to 35% with a significant northward shift. About 90% of the suitable habitat for a dominant forest species, beech tree, in Japan could disappear by the end of this century.
The overall impact of climate change on the forest ecosystems of Pakistan could be negative.
Increasing intensity and spread of forest fires in North and South-East Asia were largely related to rises in temperature and declines in precipitation in combination with increasing intensity of land uses.
The uncertainty lies on whether the expected increase in temperature would beenough to trigger more frequent and severe fires despite the projected increase in precipitation. One study on the impacts of climate change on fires show that for an average temperature increase of 1°C, the duration of wild fire season in North Asia could increase by 30%, which could have varying adverse and beneficial impacts on biodiversity, forest structure and composition, outbreaks of pest and diseases, wildlife habitat quality and other key forest ecosystem functions.

9. National Perspective-Kenya
Do we have any data on impact of CC on Forests in Kenya?
We need to document evidence of climate of change on Kenyan forests.
How do we start?
What are the KEFRI strategies?
Take home message on Impact of CC on Forests
Any impact on the forests, in turn, could have profound implications for traditional livelihood, industry, biodiversity, soil and water resources, and hence, agricultural productivity.
Moreover, these climate change induced effects would aggravate the existing stresses due to non- climate factors such as land use changes and the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources.
Impact of changes in forest types due to climate change is expected to be larger on communities who depend on forests for livelihoods and subsistence.
Communities who are more vulnerable due to their nature of livelihoods also face additional impacts due to their poor socioeconomic condition, low asset holdings and poor access to infrastructure

10. 3.0. OPPORTUNITIES: Mitigation and Adaptation

11. Trees and Mitigation of climate change
PHD DEFENCE KENYATTA UNIVERSITY 11/16/2012
Illustration of various changes in forest cover, and corresponding emissions and
removals of carbon

12. Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –
Mitigating Climate Change
Ecosystem / Forest Type Average C Stock
(t ha-1)
Miombo Woodlands 60
Coastal Forests (excluding mangroves) 95
Evergreen Catchment Forests 195
Mangrove Forests 180
Non Marine Wetlands 50
Acacia Savanna woodlands 30
Source: Munishi 2010, Munishi et al 2011, Zahabu, 2006, Katoomba Group, 2009

13. Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –Mitigating Climate Change
Protection of existing forests –conserves the existing carbon stocks
Afforestation, reforestation, and forest productivity improvements –to enhance existing carbon stocks
Restoration of degraded lands by tree /shrub planting– enhances existing C stocks on land
Substitution of fossil fuels by sustainably produced fuel-wood

14. Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa – Mitigating Climate Change
Address the causes of deforestation and forest
degradation:
provide affordable and sustainable alternative energy sources gas, biogas and improved utilization of fuel-wood and bio-fuels
avoid shifting cultivation through conservation tillage, use of fertilisers and manure, and agroforestry
Small holder forestry to meet timber/other forest product demands
Embark on better land use management through
REDD+ policy

15. 3.1. Climate Compatible Development
What is climate compatible development?
This is the development that minimisesthe harm caused by climate impacts, while maximisingthe many human development opportunities presented by low emissions, more resilient future
Climate change and responses to it are changing patterns of:
Innovation
Trade
Production
Population distribution and
Risk in complex ways
This is creating new development landscape for policy makers, who need to nurture and sustain economic growth and social development in the face of multiple threats & uncertainties while also cutting emissions or keeping them low

16. Climate compatible development (CCD) goes one step further by asking policy makers to consider “triple win” strategies: low emissions; build resilience & promote development simultaneously.

17. CCD: A new development landscape
CRD: Climate resilient Development
Source: Improved from Climate & Development Knowledge Network
Development Strategies:
Aligns the challenges posed by CC: exploit opportunities of carbon mkt; demand for cleaner energy fuelsAdaptation strategies: take advantage of climate impact at all scales: create high levels of economic & livelihood diversity, promote skills, learning & innovation, reduce dependence on ecosystems services, reduce inequality, involve participation of stakeholders
Mitigation Strategies:
using less energy, generattingmore energy from low emissions, protecting carbon stores such as forests, encourage development of low emissions technologies & provide incentives to discourage high emissions investment
Climate Compatible development
Low carbon development
CRD
Co-benefits

18. Example of Pro-poor low emissions development in Guyana
Guyana’s 2009 low carbon development strategy on payments for preserving its rainforest through REDD+ mechanism. The payment will be used to invest in :
clean energy (hydropower), flooded-related adaptation & developing village economies including strengthening health & education
In 2020: low carbon infrastructure, increase employment in low carbon sectors & secure new poverty reduction opportunities for forest dependent & indigenous communities
Has benefited from strong domestic leadership, key bilateral financing relationship with Norway and support from World Bank’s Carbon Partnership Facility

19. Take Home Message
To achieve climate compatible development, policy makers need to:
Developnationalandsubnationalgovernancesystems,includinglegislative,institutionalarchitecture,regulatoryandaccountabilitymeasuresthatcantakeadvantageofcombiningeffortstoloweremissionsorkeepemissionslow,buildresilience,grow&develop
Integratemeasurestobuildresilience&reduceriskintodevelopment&lowemissionswithstrategies
Ensuretransitiontoresilientlowemissionsgrowthhavesignificantbenefitsforpoorpeople
Acknowledgeandplanforthethreats&opportunitiesassociatedwithanewinternational,climaterelateddevelopmentlandscape

20. 3.2. The Green Economy
What is Green Economy (GE)?
UNEP defines GE as one that results in improved human well being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.
GE can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive
In GE, growth income should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions & pollution, enhances energy & resource efficiency & prevent the loss of biodiversity & ecosystems services

21. Green Growth: Implications for Development PlanningLower GHG intensity
Economic growth
Human development & poverty reduction
Enhanced Biodiversity & Ecosystem
Climate change resilientTackling climate change
Low-carbon growthGREEN GROWTH
Valuing natural capitalStrengthening communities & habitats
Equitable growth
Regional Training Course on Mitigating Climate Change in Africa Through Social Forestry 24th Oct.to 25th Nov. 2011

22. Case study: Estimated returns from sale of wood & Carbon credits-Kenyan plantation forests
Site
Tree
species
Stand density ha-1
Age (years)
Income (Ksh) from AGB tCO2e ha-1
Income (Ksh) from clearfelling m3ha- 1
Kiambu
C.lusitanica
800
8
268,859
323,694
590
14
603,330
775,773
532
24
1,338,740
1,821,856
E.saligna
1238
7
738,409
947,738
250
10
152,913
185,515
150
12
559,470
581,266
P.patula
550
6
383,774
420,315
200
10
352,055
358,023
506
13
947,698
966,042
60
32
560,638
636,229

23. Discourse on Carbon pricing
Example:
a 32 age Pinuspatulastand of 60 trees per ha at Kiambuhad an average DBH of 59 cm. This yielded an average cost of Ksh. 9,837 per tree at clearfellinghaving absorbed about 5.84 tCO2an equivalent of 182 kg of carbon dioxide per year.
This implied that the minimum value a tree investor could get from carbon sale at unit cost of US $10 (Ksh.800) would be about Ksh.4,672 as compared to Ksh. 9,837 implying that the expected minimum cost of a carbon credit should be around US $21 (Ksh. 1,685) at this age of tree stand and site.

24. Enabling condition for GE
Establish sound regulatory frame works
Prioritizing government investment and spending in areas that stimulate the greening of economic sectors
Limiting spending in areas that deplete natural capital
Employing taxes and market based instruments to shift consumer preference and promote green investment & innovation
Invest in capacity building and training
Strengthening international governance

25. Financing the Green Economy
This can be mobilized by smart public policy and innovative financing mechanisms
Rapid growth of capital markets, growing green orientation of these markets, evolution of emerging market instruments such as carbon finance & micro finance & the green funds established are opening space foe large scale financing of a global green economic transformation.

26. UNDP and UNEP in support of national efforts to reduce deforestation and forest degradation and enhance forest carbon- stocks along with REDD+ mechanisms can provide an important vehicle to drive green economy.
Donor pledges to REDD+ partnership, including UN REDD programme, REDD+ partnership, Forest Carbon Facility, the GEF and Forest investment programmeamong others amount to USD 5 billion through 2012.
PES hold wider promises