Platts Petrochemicals aromatics shale gas NGL

1. Shale Gas’ Impact on US
Petchem Production

2. Overall petchem production from crackers/PDH (Mb/d)
TOTAL CRACKER CO-PRODUCT PRODUCTION
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Ethylene 922.47 947.45 999.44 1030.90 1050.03 1067.27 1210.91 1395.38 1455.14 1455.81 1454.13 1455.31 1455.31
Propylene 104.13 112.78 110.27 109.37 114.31 159.37 186.33 197.43 199.30 199.57 198.89 199.36 199.36
Crude C4s 51.42 54.14 54.70 55.83 57.74 58.31 63.76 71.22 73.28 73.43 73.05 73.21 73.21
Butadiene 33.19 34.90 35.67 36.25 37.28 36.75 40.09 45.28 46.72 46.80 46.60 46.70 46.70
Raffinate-1 18.23 19.25 19.03 19.58 20.46 20.26 21.77 24.04 24.66 24.73 24.55 24.61 24.61
Pygas 51.44 55.29 55.34 55.49 57.33 54.99 57.52 63.24 64.35 64.66 63.89 64.18 64.18
Benzene 21.51 22.98 23.14 23.32 24.06 23.29 24.65 27.27 27.85 27.97 27.68 27.79 27.79
Toluene 6.50 7.01 7.26 7.38 7.46 7.32 7.65 8.15 8.21 8.32 8.04 8.11 8.11
Xylene 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Other Aromatics 23.22 25.08 24.77 24.60 25.59 24.15 24.99 27.60 28.07 28.14 27.95 28.06 28.06
Gas Oil (6 oil) 6.93 7.52 8.09 8.44 8.33 8.47 8.73 8.73 8.60 8.86 8.20 8.33 8.33
Hydrogen/Fuel 272.61 287.82 292.16 294.97 304.26 308.61 338.76 381.00 392.34 392.67 391.84 392.60 392.60
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Cracker Margin Yields

3. Potential polyethylene production (MT/year)
• US/Canada polyethylene demand would need to grow by nearly 6% each
year through 2019 to absorb this new material. Recent growth is 1% to 2%
annually. Excess will be exported – most likely to Latin America. 3%
annual demand increase could leave about 3.7 million tons of polyethylene
available for export from the US.
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Modeling

4. Mexico may absorb 1.5 million tons by 2023
• Assuming 4% annual growth in Mexican PE demand, stable PEMEX
production and the addition of Etileno XXI production in 2015/2016, Mexico
may be able to absorb 1.5 million tons of PE by 2023.
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Modeling

5. Central and South America also a growing market
• Assuming 4% annual growth in Central and South American demand,
there could be a nearly 3 million metric ton market for imports by 2023.
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Modeling

6. Surpluses in 2018/2019
• By 2018/2019 new cracker develops could fully supply polyethylene to all
of the Americas – assuming annual growth of 3% in US/Canada and 4% in
Mexico, Central and South America.
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Modeling

7. Slower growth could balance markets in 2023
• Reducing the growth estimates by 1% annually, balances the markets in
2023 – and leaves nearly 2.7 million MT of material available to export to
Europe/Asia in 2019.
Source: Bentek North American NGL Market Call/Platts Modeling

8. Thank you!
Jim Foster
Senior Analyst
Petrochemicals
Phone : (713) 658-3272
Email : jim_foster@platts.com